The BLS Jobs report showed a big jump in month-over-month hourly earnings. Some scream inflation, others say it's benign.

This morning I noted Another Wild Jobs Report: Payroll Employment Rose a Disappointing 20,000.

The month-over-month jump in hourly earnings are worth a closer inspection.

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees fell 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hours to 40.7 hours.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.11 to $27.66. That a 0.51% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.11 to $27.43, a gain of 0.40%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.12 to $27.38, a gain of 0.44%.

Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers rose $0.08 to $23.18. That's a 0.35% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.10 to $22.92, a gain of 0.44%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.06 to $21.90, a gain of 0.27%

Year-Over-Year Wage Growth

• All Private Nonfarm from $26.75 to $27.66, a gain of 3.4%
• All production and supervisory from $22.40 to $23.18, a gain of 3.5%.

Monthly swings can be wide, so it's best to look at trends in year-over-year growth, as the lead-chart does. Here is a closer look.

Year-Over-Year Wage Growth vs CPI 2013-2019

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Starting in August 2018, the year-over-year hourly earnings growth has been over 3% every month but October 2018. That's 6 out of seven months.

Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve clowns will no doubt be singing ah ha! See!

Dismiss the thought. The Phillips Curve is random. It appears to work about 50% of the time. That makes it useless.

Opinion 1: Inflation

Average hourly earnings growing their most since the crisis. Great in itself, but on the face of it growing inflationary pressure to combine with slowing growth is not great. pic.twitter.com/JL94vMxZf1

— John Authers (@johnauthers) March 8, 2019

Opinion 2: Inflation 

Soft payrolls is noise.
Cycle-high growth in hourly earnings is not.
That's all.

— Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) March 8, 2019

Opinion 3: Inflation

Today's payroll data were unusually noisy, which we mostly discount. What's not noisy is the steady rise in wage inflation (black), with average hourly earnings at 3.3% q/q (annualized) and clearly trending higher. Contrast this with a market pricing cuts from the Fed... pic.twitter.com/lQBnetLnjC

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) March 8, 2019

Opinion 4: Stagflation 

"Surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls growth and stronger than expected average hourly earnings growth of 0.4%, which pushed up the year-over-year wage rate to 3.4% -- the highest since April 2009. Translation: slow growth with increasing inflation pressure." #Stagflation pic.twitter.com/GjbzpEwXIm

— Michael Underhill (@M_D_Underhill) March 8, 2019

Opinion 5: Benign 

Wage growth up for unwelcome reasons: w/ economy slowing, growth in total hours worked has fallen faster than growth in total pay, boosting AHE growth. According to ECRI's USFIG, the broader U.S. inflation cycle will remain in a downturn. 2018 explanation: https://t.co/2oYvu74sFK pic.twitter.com/6MgxvvupAP

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 8, 2019

Opinion 6: Mine

I don't know, and they don't either.

I could not produce the charts of Lakshman Achuthan in Fred. But whether or not his charts are meaningful, I think Achuthan is on the right track.

Asset bubble-bursting events are deflationary. The demographic cycle is deflationary. The global slowdown, especially in China and Europe is deflationary. The huge jump in retail store closings is deflationary. The auto and housing trends are deflationary.

Finally, Trump's tax cut stimulus is about over already. Some of these wage gains are related.

If one believes we are late cycle and a recession is coming bet on Achuthan.