S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index November 2018 Year-Over-Year Growth Slowed

The non-seasonally adjusted S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth decelerated from 5.0 % (initially published as 5.0 %) to 4.7 %. The index authors stated "Housing market conditions are mixed while analysts' comments express concerns that housing is weakening and could affect the broader economy".

Analyst Opinion of Case-Shiller HPI

I continue to see this a situation of supply and demand. It is the affordability of the homes which is becoming an issue for the lower segments of consumers. With the rise in mortgage rates, it is pricing more and more consumers out of the market. If mortgage rates continue to rise - we likely will see some retrenchment in home prices.

  • 20 city unadjusted home price rate of growth decelerated 0.3 % month-over-month. [Econintersect uses the change in year-over-year growth from month-to-month to calculate the change in rate of growth]
  • Note that Case-Shiller index is an average of the last three months of data.
  • The market expected from Econoday:
  Consensus Range Consensus Actual
20-city, SA - M/M 0.0 % to 0.5 % 0.3 % +0.3 %
20-city, NSA - M/M -0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.2 % -0.1 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr 4.6 % to 5.2 % 4.9 % +4.7 %

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Year-over-Year Change

Comparing the NAR and Case-Shiller home price indices, it needs to be understood each of the indices uses a unique methodology in compiling their index - and no index is perfect.

The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change. Here home price growth generally appears to stabilize (rate of growth not rising or falling).

There are some differences between the indices on the rate of "recovery" of home prices.

A synopsis of Authors of the Leading Indices:

Case Shiller's David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices:

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