S&P At A Perilous Peak & Secular Bull High

man in black suit jacket and black pants figurine

My additional research of empirical data from 1871 to 2021 has resulted in the 4-new significant discoveries which pertain to record highs, Perilous Peaks, and Secular Bull market highs:

  • The addition of the initial Perilous Peak, which occurred in 1881. The four S&P 500 Perilous Peaks since inception happened in 1881, 1929, 2000 & 2021.  
  • “DNA” for a Perilous Peak and development of the Extreme Analytics (EA) algorithm identifies Perilous Peaks.
  • “Greed Accelerator,” one of the critical elements of the DNA which has preceded every one of the S&P 500’s Perilous Peaks since its inception.
  • There is a direct correlation between Perilous Peaks, Secular Bull market highs, and the birth dates for Secular Bears.

The discoveries corroborate the initial research findings covered in the 1/16/21 article about my discovery of Perilous Peaks. Below is an excerpt from the article:

“The differentiation of a Perilous Peak from the hundreds of record highs which occur during the lifetime of a secular bull market is a game-changing breakthrough.  It guides and empowers savvy investor to know when to get out and maximizes their after-tax profits.”    

DNA

The DNA discovery is arguably the most important throughout my 44-year career.  It answers the haunting question which thousands of investment professionals have struggled with throughout their careers, “When will the Secular Bull market end?”.

Until this DNA was discovered, the lifespan of a mature Secular Bull was anybody’s guess.  Charles Dow, the creator of the Dow Jones Index, was the first to find out that markets were secular.  Before his death in 1900, he said, “markets move like a pendulum, swinging from excessive gains to excessive losses.”  

The table below contains the lifespans for all Secular Bull and Secular Bear markets for the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Composite Index from 1802 to 2021.  All Secular Bull and Secular Bear markets for the Dow, since 1802, have had minimum lifespans of 8 years and maximum lifespans of 20 years.  Because of the dizzying range of lifespans, predicting the end of a Secular Bull has been an exercise in futility until now.

Perilous Peak Secular Bull, Markowski: S&P At A Perilous Peak & Secular Bull High

Note:  The research to discover the DNA for a Perilous Peak was conducted on the S&P 500 instead of the Dow.  Since 1957, when the S&P was expanded to 500 members, the S&P index has been much more representative than the Dow.

The History

The chart below depicts (from 1929 to 2021) the S&P 500’s Perilous Peaks, Secular Bull highs, and the end for each Secular Bear.  Perilous Peaks coincided with all but one of the secular bull highs.

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |

Author: Michael Markowski has worked in Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.