S&P 500 Continues Defying Gravity In Upside Down Market

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to defy gravity in the upside down market the Fed has wrought, closing the trading week ending on April 24, 2020 at 2,836.74, 599.34 points (21.1%) above its 23 March 2020 coronavirus recession low, and 549.10 points (16.2%) below its February 19, 2020 pre-coronavirus recession high, giving an indication of the extreme volatility that has characterized the stock market during the last two months.

The alternative futures forecast chart shows the level of the S&P 500 is consistent with an amplification factor m in the dividend futures-based model being equal to -1 following the Fed's last action to backstop the liquidity of the commercial bond market.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2020Q1 and 2020Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 24 Apr 2020

Dividend futures have also been rebounding, which in today's upside down market, means that the expected future level of the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share won't be as low as they were projected a month ago when the market hit bottom.

Past and Projected Quarterly Dividends Futures for the S&P 500, 2019-Q2 through 2021-Q2, Snapshot on  24 April 2020

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