S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advance. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. It continued its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58 recently. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got very close to 2,600 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,600, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 2,635-2,640, marked by December the 14th daily gap down of 2,635.07-2,637.27. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,550-2,570, and the next support level remains at 2,500, marked by some recent local highs.

The broad stock market broke below its two-month-long trading range in the mid-December, as the S&P 500 index fell below the level of 2,600. Then the market accelerated lower and it broke below the level of 2,400. The downward correction reached 20.2% from the September all-time high, surpassing January-February correction of around 12%. Is this a long-term bear market? It still looks like a medium-term downward correction, but the index remains slightly below the October-December consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Daily S&P 500 index chart - SPX, Large Cap Index

Negative Expectations, Downward Reversal?

The index futures contracts trade 0.9-1.1% below their Friday's closing prices. So expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.7-1.0% so far. There will be no new important economic data announcements today. The broad stock market may retrace some of its recent advance. Despite last week's gains, we saw some profit-taking action following the recent rally.

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