Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 26

COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed higher for the week and trends are up on the weekly charts. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast a couple of weeks ago and did some damage to Cotton. Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. Heavy rains are returning to the Southeast this week and Cotton could be hurt again. The weekly export sales report showed improved demand last week and was considered a reason to buy futures. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have showers and snow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 36,963 bales, from 33,731 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed up with no objectives. Support is at 7000, 6930, and 6840 December, with the resistance of 7220, 7250, and 7280 December.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was near unchanged after trading on both sides of unchanged last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting the consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and foodservice demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 110.00, and 109.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower last week in New York and slightly lower in London. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam and the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week. The demand from coffee shops and other foodservice operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on-year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.129 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.49 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 100.00, and 98.00 December, and resistance is at 107.00, 109.00, and 111.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1320, and 1340 November.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York was higher and London was a little lower. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane's growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Demand appears to be about average.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1510 and 1580 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 388.00, and 385.00 December, and resistance is at 405.00, 409.00, and 412.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London were higher. The daily charts suggest that both markets have made short term lows. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading through much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. Drier weather is currently in the forecast so conditions should improve. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violences expected.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.500 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2640, 2810, and 2980 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2520, 2530, and 2580 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1590 December, with resistance at 1730, 1770, and 1810 December.

Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.