Slightly Bearish EIA Number Prevents March Gas Recovery

The March gas contract was initially strong this morning on higher daily power demand and small GWDD additions overnight, though a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal last week as announced by the EIA pulled the contract down to near flat into the settle. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

The March contract was the only one near flat on the day, as the rest of Cal19 was incredibly weak. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

The result was that the March/April contract spread finally began to recover after recent losses. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

Spreads were weak this morning initially but did not recover following the EIA announcement that only 78 bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage versus our expectation of 82 bcf. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

This was very slightly tighter than last week's number but still quite loose overall, which helps explain recent weakness in the gas market. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

Afternoon weather model guidance ticked colder, though not really enough to have a significant impact on the market. 

natural gas commodity weather

Heading into the weekend we expect traders to be positioning for the risk of yet another gap, as we have seen significant weather changes each of the last several weekends that have led to very active gas markets on Monday. 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.