Silver During Periods Of Industrial Inflation

When industrial inflation is hotter than consumer inflation silver (SLV) does well.

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In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation. 

The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yield curve.

A steep yield curve is when the long term rates are higher than the short term rates, suggesting investors are not selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is a healthy risk on environment. A flat yield curve is a period of economic concern as investors are selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is when the blue line is falling and if below zero it may lead to a recession. Silver price tends to suffers during recessions.

Economic recovery is when the blue line moves from up from zero, this recovery leads to increased industrial and investor demand for silver. 

POINT: Yield curve recovery leads silver price recover.


The next indicator (red line) is the industrial producer price inflation ratio to the consumer price inflation, or PPI divided by CPI, or business versus the consumer. If during a period of yield curve recovery we also have hot producer price inflation the silver price recovery is likely to be more aggressive. 

Higher inflation arrives during periods of abundant money supply while suffering market constraints (or shortages). There is abundant money around (after FED printing) and COVID19 has disrupted supply chains resulting in shortages. High demand for items in short supply creates inflation.

Currently 2021 PPI is red hot versus CPI and if this persist like the periods of 1973 to 1982 and 2006 to 2014 (ex 2008 shock) silver will likely see higher prices.

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