Shoulder Season Doldrums Keep April Gas Flat

The shoulder season doldrums appear to have arrived for natural gas traders, with the April gas contract losing just a tick on the day as weather models warmed but low storage fears keep the summer curve bid. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The summer strip was firmest, with both spring and winter getting sold. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The result was further widening of the April/October J/V contract spread, which settled as narrow as 8.4 cents this week. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Prices initially moved higher overnight, spurred by small overnight Gas Weighted Degree Day additions and supportive spread action yesterday. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Prices moved within 5 ticks of the $2.9 level we were watching before pulling back as afternoon weather model guidance moderated. The 12z GEFS was significantly less cold in the long-range (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

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natural gas commodity weather

Yet all these impacts on price were muted with demand swings significantly smaller. Our Morning Update was "Neutral," which verified well on this slow day, and volatility looks to stay low moving forward. Cash prices were fairly unimpressive too, indicating a narrow range likely into next week. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Yet there are still decent lingering cold risks, and how much cold we get can determine how close to 1 tcf natural gas stockpiles nationally are able to go. 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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