The shoulder season doldrums appear to have arrived for natural gas traders, with the April gas contract losing just a tick on the day as weather models warmed but low storage fears keep the summer curve bid. 

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The summer strip was firmest, with both spring and winter getting sold. 

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The result was further widening of the April/October J/V contract spread, which settled as narrow as 8.4 cents this week. 

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Prices initially moved higher overnight, spurred by small overnight Gas Weighted Degree Day additions and supportive spread action yesterday. 

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Prices moved within 5 ticks of the $2.9 level we were watching before pulling back as afternoon weather model guidance moderated. The 12z GEFS was significantly less cold in the long-range (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

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Yet all these impacts on price were muted with demand swings significantly smaller. Our Morning Update was "Neutral," which verified well on this slow day, and volatility looks to stay low moving forward. Cash prices were fairly unimpressive too, indicating a narrow range likely into next week. 

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Yet there are still decent lingering cold risks, and how much cold we get can determine how close to 1 tcf natural gas stockpiles nationally are able to go.