Short-Termism Vs. Optimism: Weekly Nifty 9 Must Knows

Research Report Insight #9

When dissecting what went wrong for the category during the month it struck me that the calendar had shifted on a YoY basis. This is validate in the NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Nonstore retail sales chart below:

Not seasonally adjusted, sales at non-store retailers spiked by 19.7% in December from November to a new record of $114 billion, up 22.2% year-over-year, pushing them to a record share of 18.4% of total retail sales. For the entire year 2020, sales at non-store retailers jumped by 22.1% to $971 billion. This should have been realized by many economists and market participants given the economic environment.

In laymen’s terms, and if we didn’t have the actual sales totals disseminated from private companies, the calendar (seasonally adjusted) played tricks with the December retail sales. In 2019, Thanksgiving occurred in the last week of the month, pushing the last Sunday and full Black Friday weekend into December along with Cyber Monday. That was not the case in 2020, as the full Black Friday weekend and Cyber Monday were all condensed into the November calendar.

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