Stock Market Commentary

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

The magnitude of the alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline from last week.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 25 to March 31 range.

• Last STCL: January 31, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 16 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 25 to March 31 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 3,386 would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a move down toward the 200-day moving average at 3,044.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).