Short-Term Forecast For Friday, Nov 27

Stock Market Commentary

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on November 1.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart AnalysesThe magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

 

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 1. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 11 to December 31, with our best estimate being in the December 18 to December 24 range.

  • Last STCL: November 1, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 18 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 11 to December 31; best estimate in the December 18 to December 24 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,531 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 3,446.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

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