Shaking Off Bad News

The pace of earnings reports continues to pick up steam, and what we’ve seen in many instances so far is an ability by the market to shake off weakness.  The latest example today is 3M (MMM), which reported weaker than expected EPS and revenues and also lowered guidance. So, how much is MMM trading down in the pre-market? It’s actually up 2.5%. Overall, this earnings season we have also seen a trend where companies beating EPS forecasts are being rewarded considerably more in magnitude than companies who are missing EPS forecasts are being punished. In the last two weeks, the 129 companies that have reported better than expected EPS are up an average of 2.5% on their earnings reaction days, while the 60 companies that have missed EPS forecasts have declined just 1.6%   

After yesterday’s warnings from Nvidia (NVDA), there’s been some dueling analyst commentary in the stock this morning. While UBS upgraded the stock to a buy rating, both Morgan Stanley and Needham downgraded the stock.  Needham even thinks the stock could drop below $100. While the analysts disagree on NVDA, the semis held up reasonably well yesterday given the warning. As shown in the chart below, while the group opened weaker on the day yesterday, it held support at the short-term uptrend off the December lows and finished the day up nearly 2% from its early lows.



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