Sentiment Up, Complacency Up - But Uncertainty Also Up (Not Down?)

"Newbie" investors are almost giddy with expectations. These kinds of euphoric gaps (see below) are historically filled quickly by some sort of "surprise shock" when the mistaken expectations are suddenly face-to-face with stark reality.

"Captain Donald" and his carefully recruited crew are all boarding the USS Economy which is a ship that has been taking on serious water for some time.  Few crew member  have yet to take full measure of the hurricane on the horizon lest they rain on the election 'euphoria' parade.  A hurricane of fiscal debt (~$20T), unfunded liabilities (~$84T) and soon to be tested contingent liabilities (~$220T fiscal gap) which appears to be a category 5++ level.

Captain Donald is not responsible for this coming storm, but he will be entrusted to securing safe passage through it for the still excited and unprepared passengers of USS Economy.

COMPLACENCY IS UP DRAMATICALLY

There is little doubt currently that complacency reigns in the financial markets. Nowhere is that complacency more evident than in the VIX, for those who still believe this Wall Street controlled instrument of "media narrative".

Additionally, the Market Greed/Fear Index which combines the 4-measures of investor sentiment (AAII, INVI, MarketVane, & NAAIM) with the inverse Volatility Index says complacency is "off the charts"!

MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO GOING THROUGH THE ROOF???

So we have Sentiment UP, Complacency UP but Uncertainty also UP (Not DOWN?). How does that work?

Some of this is difficult to comprehend if you don't yet believe the Central Bankers and their Wall Street proxy's (Citadel Capital?) are not plying their craft behind the scenes.

Also, how exactly does this occur with yield spreads?

Are we being set up for yet another big Wall Street payday?

For close to 50 years, every time federal tax receipts (as measured by the 12 Mo rolling Y-o-Y) started slowing the US was already in a recession or very close to it beginning. When tax receipts went negative (we tax receipts actually began shrinking) we were well into the recession. Both have already occurred. Of course the public "narrative" no longer allows the use of the "R" word in case a reality adjustment would occur.

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Disclosure: Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, ...

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