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Goods trades balance data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

The Advance Economic Indicators Report for February shows another huge trade imbalance.

Advance International Trade in Goods

• The international trade deficit was $147.9 billion in February, down $7.7 billion from $155.6 billion in January.
• Exports of goods for February were $178.6 billion, $7.0 billion more than January exports.
• Imports of goods for February were $326.5 billion, $0.6 billion less than January imports.
• The January balance was revised from $-153.3 billion to $-155.6 billion increasing the deficit by $3.3 billion.

Advance Wholesale Inventories

• Wholesale inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $902.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2025, and were up 1.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from February 2024.
• The December 2024 to January 2025 percentage change was unrevised from up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Advance Retail Inventories

• Retail inventories for February, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $823.0 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2025, and were up 4.6 percent (±0.7 percent) from February 2024.
• The December 2024 to January 2025 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent) to up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent).

Goods Balance of Trade and Advance Goods Balance Detail

(Click on image to enlarge)

Goods trades balance data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

Goods Exports and Imports

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Goods exports and Imports data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

Exports have gone nowhere since July of 2022. Imports started a surge in July of 2023.

Not all of the surge is tariff related but most of the recent spike is.

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