Twenty years ago today the Hutus in Rwanda began slaughtering the Tutsis, among the worst genocides since World War II. Anne Aghion, a film-maker friend who produced the indie "Gachaca" movie, reminded me of the anniversary.

With markets down, pessimism is in fashion.

Kamakura Corp raised its forecast 1-mo T-bill rate peak at the end of 2020 to 4.05%, up from a mere 3.86% just a week ago. Ten year notes are expected to rise steadily to a level of 4.23% by 2024 by which time mortgages will cost 5.935%/yr in interest. The Hawaii-based analysis shop uses historic data as a given and doesn't using changes in the Treasury yield curve which could cause much steeper rises.

Today The Guardian, a UK newspaper, published an article by guru Larry Elliott, who writes:

"Optimists could be right. This could be the start of a long global upswing built on technological change and middle-class spending power in fast-growing emerging markets. Or it could be another case of groupthink.

"Imagine that in 5 years' time the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is [again] doing a postmortem on a period of global turbulence. What will it say were the warning signs missed during 2014?

"The first will doubtless feature the global economy's dependency on exceptionally low interest rates. Britain and the US have only been able to revert to their trend rate of growth through looser and looser monetary policy.

"The second threat is a bond market crash as central banks try to return monetary policy to a more normal setting gradually reducing the amount of bonds [bought] under quantitative easing [and] using forward guidance to reassure borrowers that any increase in interest rates will be modest and gradual. When the time comes to sell bonds back to the market, the greater supply of bonds will depress prices and raise yield. A rush to the exit would be swift and painful.

"Is there a bubble out there everybody is missing? How about fracking? Getting oil and gas out of the ground is proving costlier and less profitable than expected. The third threat is that fracking proves to be the new sub-prime.

"Finally there are problems the world ignores at its peril, the risk of resource conflicts unless the international community serious[ly] deal[s] with global warming. The inaction of policy makers on climate change is the same as Greenspan's on asset-price bubbles: deal with the problem if it arises. We all know how that ended.

"Action needs to be taken against rising inequality. For the 3 decades after [World War II] a rising tide lift[ed] all boats. That is no longer the case with a tiny elite grabbing the lion's share of global growth. At the bottom, and increasing for the middle, [this means] wage squeezes, high unemployment, debt, austerity, and poverty. The 85 richest people own the same wealth as half the world's population but seem oblivious to the risk of widespread social unrest. [Like] the Bourbons and Romanovs."

More follows from Russia, Israel, Germany, Iraq, Ireland, Mexico, Chinese grandparent stocks, Britain, Canada, and Mongolia. Including not one, but two drug company scandals, and two Russian buys.

*Mallinckrodt is buying Questcor Pharma (QCOR of Anaheim, CA) for $5.2 bn in stock and cash to boost its pharma pipeline. QCOR's key product is H.P. Acthar Gel used to managing 19 autoimmune and inflammatory indications. Despite paying 27% over the Friday close price, MNK says the deal will add to 2014 earnings. It will result in a new (Irish tax haven) MNK in which QCOR will own 49.5%. MNK fell sharply on Friday probably because someone was acting on insider knowledge. It is off a further 3.34% today while QCOR is up over 10.7% despite the deal being accretive to MNK.

*Paddy Power plc got another buy rating from analysts at UK brokers Daniel Stewart with a target price of euros 69 vs a current price of 58 citing its online prowess. "The US [is] not factored in at present." It also says value for money may lure bettors to PDYPF from older British betting shop players, justifying a higher multiple than theirs. Value for money in punting!

*Compugen Ltd, our Israeli biotech startup, is under investigation by the Israel Securities Authority, their SEC, for insider trading. The CFO's husband, Arié Czaczkes Axselbrad, is accused of giving family members and friends non-public information about plans by Germany's Bayer to partner in cancer products with CGEN last Aug. He has denied the accusations reported in Israeli newspapers. An Israeli source, Globe Israel, was shut down today at lawyer orders. Mr. CA was released under various restrictions and his lawyer said he had denied the allegations. The Israeli newspapers are full of this. Martin Gerstel, CGEN Chairman, said Compugen itself is not under investigation, and expressed confidence it Dikla CA, and said her role in the company would not change "subject to review as additional information becomes available." As CGEN soared last year I got cold feet while I was in Colombia and sold 1/3 of my long-term holding in CGEN and have been kicking myself ever since. I would be in a class action if there is one because even after falling ~4% today the share is at $9.98 and I sold at $8 and change.

*GlaxoSmithKline faces another bribery scandal, this time over actions by its drug detail men in Iraq, according to today's Financial Times. GSK reportedly hired government doctors and pharmacists as paid salesmen for its products in violation of UK and US rules, just as was done in China.

*Teva has asked that the US Supremes quash an interim lower court nullification of its May-expiry copaxone patents until the high court can hear the case. Teva was raised to buy with a target price of $64.22 (what precision!) by National Alliance Securities today. The Sun-Ranbaxy India merger adds a new player to the generics battleground, with both however currently banned from US selling.

*As eastern Ukraine apparently goes the way of Crimea, it is another opportunity to load up on Russian assets. As before, do not buy a closed-end or exchange-traded fund. Instead we are back into Yandex (we didn't sell our last lot with a gain as we did a LIFO trade so there is no wash sale rule.) In a period of political uncertainty people use their search engines more. Russians are all wired up and tech savvy. YNDX is growing ~30%/yr ($170 bn in sales in the last 12 months) and trades at a market cap of $10 bn and a p/e ratio of ~15. The share is down 4% today at under $29.

*Another buy is Raven Rus, the UK-listed warehouse and logistics firm operating in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Rostov-on-Don, leasing to suppliers of Russian consumers, companies selling cars, meds, hamburgers, soft drinks (and kvass). RUS:LSE.

*Mexichem will now consolidate results of its joint venture with Mexican state-owned Mastodon Pemex beginning with a restatement of the results from Q4 2013, reports Eduardo Garcia in www.sentidocomun.co.mx. The two companies are investing in modernizing a vinyl chloride line to supply MXCHF's plastic tube business by boosting producing from 200,000 metric tonnes per year to 450,000. The restatement in an annex will allow analysts to see how things changed.

*Fibra Uno reported on its AGM last week which voted down the plan to pay the managers 1% of net asset value annually. The Mexican REIT will return to the earlier pay scheme, which paid the managers 3% of gross asset value but only for related third-party acquisitions, to keep the El-Mann real estate clan from shifting too many assets to the FBASF and benefiting from this. Overall, the annual fee will remain at 0.5% of NAV and not rise to 1%. However, shareholders did support a complex employee compensation plan (for specific employees) which will not be put in place. It is still unclear how this will be structured. Shareholder also approved a new issue of shares to increase firepower at the REIT but again conditions are unclear. The issue may be done in Mexico or globally; it can be big or little; it can have pre-set conditions or not; it can be via stocks, convertibles, or straight bonds.

*Another round of Mongolian demands for more loot under the 2009 accord with Rio Tinto-controlled Turquoise Hill over royalties payable for the huge Oyo Tolgoi has hit Mongolia Growth Fund, MNGGF or YAK in Canada. This is a speculation on real estate return which depends on continued western interest in the country. The initial accord was revised already in 2011 and last year.

*Writing in The Investor's Chronicle today, Simon Thompson returned from vacation to deal with the outlook for Camkids, the London AIM listed Chinese clothing and shoe supplier whose stock has plummetted. I wrote yesterday that I think China's 4 grandparents will not stop spoiling the one grandchild they have under the national one-child policy. Mr Thompson adds that the share is 40% below its 200-day moving average and now is 2/3 accounted for by CAMK's cash. The adjusted p/e ratio, he says, is less than one. "In anyone's book this is an extreme valuation." The share fell to GB 69.5 pence today despite Mr Thompson's screed; we paid 88 pence.

*Meanwhile Naibu Global (the other way 4 Chinese grandparents keep their sole grandchild happy) is again rated a buy with an astonishing target price of GBP 2 by Daniel Stewart & Co brokers. It yields 8.3% and its 2013 sales were up 15% based on Jan. trading indicators. It trades at net cash. We paid 88 pence for it too and it is now 72 pence, not as persuasively down

*The tech vapors have taken down Tencent Holdings which lost all its 2014 gains and fell 4.5% to under HK 502 in today's trading. Part of that was a reaction to the Friday US tech selloff and other Asian Internet stocks also fell: Softbank in Japan, Naver in Korea.

*Saneamento Basico de São Paulo is expected to increase its debt leverage to 3.5x from current 2.5x because of the cut in revenue and cash generation resulting from low water levels in its reservoirs. This was predicted by Fitch Ratings which also expects a 33% drop in EBITDA margins vs 45% last year. We sold SBS in time.