Ruskaya Dusha

In reply to readers keen on an audacious move into Russia, I do not have a Russaya Dusha. There are good reasons not to buy into Gazprom over its deal with China to develop new gasfields in eastern Siberia. Gazprom OAO ADRs which trade here as OGZPY sound like a great buy: the stock yields 4% and trades at a luscious looking trailing price-earnings ratio of 3x. The company is obscenely profitable, with an 83% reported gross margin and a 22%+ net profit margin. It sales are growing 10% a year.

What's not to like about this huge gas producer whose total market capitalization is less than $100 bn, less than a quarter the valuation of Exxon Mobil which produces less energy at higher costs and yields a third less in dividends. XON's p/e ratio is 13.6.

I am not avoiding OGZPY because its CEO Alexei Miller is putting the screws on Ukraine by demanding prepayment for its gas supplies, or because he is a pal of Putin's, although both would be arguments against the share. My boycott is because of how Gazprom's latest move, a huge $400 bn 30-year contract with China National Petroleum Corp was negotiated and sealed. OGZPY CEO Alexei Miller called the price per cubic meter (cu m) of the Chinese contract “a commercial secret”. Today, however, the Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak, told Russian State TV that the contracted price being charged China was “close to $350 per thousand cu m,” (according to Dow Jones) but that it “is tied to the oil product basket and may be different each time.” Watch that oil basket, please.

Today Vladimir Putin announced that “at the agreed price and volume, the investment required for the project would pay off.”

The two companies then quickly announced that they would work together in two oil and gas blocks offshore Tanzania. Gazprom hinted that it would seek a listing in Singapore. Gazprom wants to show the world that it is not dependent on its deliveries via the trans-Ukraine pipeline to western Europe. It is a global player.

Moreover, in yet another speech today, CEO Miller said that “Gazprom was, is, and will remain the No. 1 supplier to Europe.” He added, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg boycotted by many companies and officials, that Gazprom is “ready to send as much gas to Europe as the market needs.” Miller is trying to make sure that the European offtake of Gazprom gas, which accounts for a third of its total consumption, will continue despite fears that it will, once again, cut supplies going through Ukraine.

European utilities are adding gas liquefaction capacity to reduce dependence on Gazprom. Distant plans would add supplies of cheap US shale gas to what is going from the Middle East to western Europe. Even Israel is selling natural gas to Europe under a deal with Fenosa of Spain. China may take over as a customer, but that will be expensive and take years.

My Kremlinologist instincts were aroused by the news blitz. One thing I am sure of is that developing two new gasfields in eastern Siberia to supply China from will be costly to Gazprom. While very profitable, OGZPY is used as a cash cow by the Russian government.

Another near certainty is that while it is politically important for Russia to get a China deal to offset the negativism about their dependence on Gazprom from post-Crimea western European countries, China played hardball to get its gas cheaply. So the price Gazprom will get from its new fields and new pipelines to China will be lower than what a normal business would seek.

Quickest off the mark was the Italian oil company ENI (E) which revealed today that it had won revised terms including a cut in gas prices from Gazprom “tied to the oil basket.” Miller more or less confirmed that this would happen by saying “it can be assumed that the signing of the [China] contract will affect gas prices on the European market” eastern Africa, Australia, and western Canada.

Whatever sweetened terms OGZPY gave to China will become the new normal for its other customers.

Other Russian plays are healthier. More on these plus other news from Singapore, Israel, Britain, Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, Canada, Holland, and Ireland. No blog Monday: it's Memorial Day.

*Our Russia plays are not attracting mindless attention like OGZPY, another reason for looking at them. First is Yandex. YNDX is suffering from fear of sanctions which are far more likely to hit the energy company than a widely traded Dutch-incorporated share listed on Nasdaq, internet search provider not just to Russia, but also to Ukraine which moreover beat by a penny the last time it reported earnings.

*Our other Russia play is Raven Russia, GB:RUS, a warehouse and logistics firm serving three Russian cities. Clients of the UK-incorporated real estate company are global companies which are likely to gain now that the major credit card companies have agreed that they will continue to operate inside Russia despite some sanctions against named individuals, whose cards perhaps will be blocked. That means the average Russian can continue to buy global branded goods, something that Vladimir Putin very much wants to preserve, to make Russians think theirs is a normal country. Again this is an under-the-radar Russky play.

*We are also avoiding Russia close-end or exchange-traded funds.

*Here are some ways to play the China side of the equation, unfortunately not as cheap. A key beneficiary of drilling in eastern Siberia looks like being Anton Oilfield Services, ATONY, which is up again today. It offers well-head services to drilling companies.

*While 20% owned by Schlumberger Ltd., SLB, Hong Kong-listed ATONY is a politically more palatable alternative as CNPC and OGZPY get busy.

*Delek Group, the partner of Spain's Fenosa, may gain in reaction to the Russo-China deal. DGRLY may also gain because Stephen A. Cohen took a huge stake in Delek Group with his new family fund which replaced his insider-plagued hedge fund.

*Two Canadians are likely winners too. First off, Computer Modelling, CMDXF, a wellhead computer services company helping drillers model or simulate their reservoirs. It reported yesterday on FY 2013-4 and plans a 2:1 split and a 5.3% raised dividend, now 78 loony cents/sh. Its Q4 earnings rose 4% on marginally stronger sales. Full year earnings came to C$27.63 mn, up 14% while sales for the year rose 9% to C$74.5 mn. What I like about CMG:TO is that it has zero debt and cash on hand of $61 mn. It spends 17% of sales on R&D to keep its simulators stimulating.

The stock was downrated by several Canadian analysts after the results, but the share continues to fly despite a p/e ratio of 43. Its business model is to sign up drillers for software licenses and professional services. While most sales are licenses, the services arm is the fastest growing, up 39% in Q4 from prior year Q4.

*Veresen (with the unhelpful US ticker symbol: FCGYF, VSN) for Canadians is at a new high yesterday but is still doing well for US investors. It raised its dividend to 0.833 loony cents, eligible for tax deduction in Canada. You can reinvest it at a 5% discount in new common shares if you enroll in the DRIP plan (read on). The Martin Ferera pick is the only pipeline company with permits to hit the Pacific coast which will offer an alternative to the new LNG plant Russia will build at the Vladivostok end of its new pipeline to China. It will depend on western contractors to put this in place, but meanwhile its potential customers like Korea, Japan, can sign up for Canadian gas, with fewer political strings. British Columbia may be plotting fierce taxes unless saner heads prevail, but it doesn't use its gas as a political weapon. At a BC energy conference yesterday, Martin says the head of the Malaysian state-owned oil company warned the province to keep its tax regime “competitive.”

I called Computershare (of Australia) which acts for Veresen and it is clear that I will not be able to send a form back the the deadline for the May 30 ex-div date (May 23 at 5 pm today.) There will always be another one. I didn't have time to apply via e-trade which may be faster.

*When they get to build the new gas pipelines and terminals, the Russian may turn to CBI of Holland, recalling that it is no longer called Chicago Bridge & Iron. If they do it might improve my view of Gazprom.

*Another likely winner on the build is Abengoa of Spain, ABGB, which won two contracts yesterday, a euros 35 mn deal to suppply water and sewage lines to Denizil Municipality in Turkey, a small town which needs 250 km of pipes. It also completed a 206 mW solar plant on Mount Signal in Calexico, California, supplying San Diego. So far, ABGB has no deals in Russia or China but I expect that intelligent management (prodded by China) may wind up seeking Western suppliers.

*Another possible beneficiary, which performs verification of oil and gas pipeline (despite its main business also being water and sewage) is Pure Technologies, PPEHF or PUR-Toronto. To some extent my view of the whole Russo-Chinese combo depends on their using Western contractors to show that it is a business deal rather than a matter of geopolitical conspiracy.

*Singapore's Global Logistic Properties net rose to US$685.2 mn in the year toMar 31, up all of 0.1% on revenues of $598.3 mn, down 6.8%. Apart from slowing Chinese growth, the drop in earnings and sales at the logistics and warehouse company were the result of its sale of properties to a new J-REIT which will be paying GBTZF management fees in future years. Without the REIT sale, revenues would have risen 20% and profits 31%, in US$. The company develops properties in Japan, China, and Brazil and is owned by pension programs and wealth managers of the govts of Singapore and Canada.

Drug delivery victory for two drug companies:

*GlaxoSmithKline won European advisory opinion favoring its Arzerra drug to treat patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in combo with chlorambucil or bendamustine. The Committee on Medicinal Products for Human Use (AKA CHMP) usually is followed by a Commission authorization. GSK also applied for Japanese OK for its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug using the Ellipta dry powder inhaler to deliver muscrinic antagonist.

*However CHIMP turned down laquinomod, a successor to copaxone, an oral multiple sclerosis treatment on safety concerns. Teva will reapply, its R&D head Michael Hayden told FiercePharma.com. Teva got FDA ok for its QVAR steroid generic (beclomethasone dipropionate) with a dose counter so patients know when they need to reorder and can avoid overdosing.

*Two of our firms are getting together, unhappily. Australian biopharma Benitec Biopharma Ltd (BNIKF) won EU protection of two of its RNA interference patents but the European Patent Office turned down another. 1555317 was opposed by BASF and an outfit called “strawman ltd”, now identified as Belgian Galapagos NV. The Ox company as now signed up to license GLPYY's patent for human therapeutics and diagnosis for its ddRNAi pipeline in Europe. BNIKF is considering an appeal on 155317.

*CI Financial was rated outperform by Royal Bank of Canada today. CIFAF had been rated neutral.

*Covidien at a Paris drug conference reports that its Stellarex drug coated angioplasty balloon works and is safe in treating peripheral arterial disease or PAD by delivering palitaxel to the vessel wall in arteries, in a 2-yr study. There are 40.5 million PAD cases in Europe annually, according to The Lancet.

*Fund notes:

New Ireland Fund reported on its last quarter (to end-April) during which NAV rose 9.63% and the market price 14.74% (the quarter included St. Patrick's Day.) Its top 10 stakes are Ryanair (16.47%); Kerry Group (dairy, 11.71%); CRH (formerly cement-roadstone, in the aggregates business 10.07%); Arysta AG (Swiss agribiz 9.42%); and a new one, Irish Residential Properties REIT (4.79%.) It also addedCie de St-Gobain at 4.38%, a French firm we used to own. IRL.

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