Right Of Reply In Missouri

WS, a long time Missourian reader exercised his right of response to my note on Ferguson yesterday:

“I object to the phrase 'schoolboy error.' We in Missouri are closer to the situation than you. Some graduates of my high school, Normandy, the worst high school in the state, with just 8% of students competent in math, still have parents living fairly close to the W. Florissant area; we shopped and played on these same streets before the dysfunctional Missouri tax system rewarded wealthy taxpayers for putting up these massive Cabrini-Green type complexes that breed crime.

“I agree with you, this is not a simple error by the police; it involves tragically excessive force. But let's talk about your wording 'schoolboy error.' Did you see the police video or frames from the video? Is this just a schoolboy error, grabbing the storekeeper's shirt and practically lifting him off the ground?

“This was not just shoplifting. And you are right about the immigrants being amazed. St. Louis immigrants from Korea, Bosnia, and elsewhere have been amazed to discover the risks from working in American convenience stores. They had to bury relatives whose only crime was to work the late shift and were shot by thieves in the convenience store, who like Brown were using force.

“Just to be sure, you wouldn't call those armed robberies that turned fatal schoolboy errors, would you?

“He can vote, he's not a kid. If your kid dropped out of college, hung out at night on the street, was arrested multiple times, and was bullying storekeepers, would you sum this up by saying, 'he's not perfect?' This is a different culture than we had before. But still, I grieve right along with the mom.”

I  think the Missourian is wrong about the late Michael Brown dropping out of college or having an arrest record as I have not seen this reported. Hedy Epstein of St. Louis, a 90-year-old Holocaust survivor, was arrested yesterday for blocking the entrance to Gov. Jay Nixon's office yesterday. She was protesting the shooting by police of Michael Brown.

We don't currently recommend BHP (dual-listed in the UK and Australia with ADRs on both, BBL and BHP respectively). A strong sell-off followed the announcement that it would spin off assets into a new global mining and metals company, but the Oz version sold off more sharply than the British. Broken Hill Proprietary that was combined with Britain's Billiton in the days when big was big; now they are undoing the merger.

To add your voice against massive addition of antibiotics to animal feed which helps keep down meat prices while adding greatly to the risks that drug-resistant germs will infect human beings, please visit the Consumer Union website,https://secure.consumersunion.org/site/advocacy;js

A note called “The Mitzvah Factory” was posted by the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation on the www.talkmarkets.com website to which I also contribute. By Roddy Boyd, it's about a US insurance group and its foundations to help Belzer Chassidic causes. It is outside my remit. News today from Portugal, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Singapore, Brazil, South Korea, and Pakistan.

*Eduardo Garcia (in www.sentidocomun.co.mx) writes about Mexichem:

The largest plastic tube producer in Latin America moved to extend its domain again. This time the victim is US Dura-Line, maker of high density polyethylene (HDPE) precision tubes for telecom voice and data, energy transmission, and infrastructure with a blue-chip client base. MXCHF agreed to pay $630 mn for the US firm gaining control alongside private CHS Capital, a specialist in mid-cap finance.

“The acquisition in another indication of Mexichem's aggressive global expansion strategy which, in less than a decade, has has made the company, controlled by the Del Valle family, into a major Mexican multinational company, with operations now in 31 countries. Only 10 days earlier, MXCHF announced another international acquisition, of Germany's Vestolit, the 6th largest European producer of polyvinyl chloride resins.

“Mexichem did not reveal the price paid for Dura-Line including assuming debt. As Mexico legislates reforms there will be increasing demand for HDPE for telecoms, energy, and infrastructure tubing. It will keep in place Dura-Line management and brands.” (translated and cut by me.)

*BusinessBrazil reported an interview with a CLSA analyst in Singapore, Yew Kiang Wong, who said that the strategy of our Global Logistic Properties is to recycle capital from mature Japanese assets into development business. This means selling its J-REIT assets to raise equity to invest in development properties in Brazil and China. “Proceeds will go back to China and fund their extension business in Brazil”, Wong said. He pointed out that GBTZF “can do 30% or 30%-plus” margins in developing country programs.

*More on the Gamida Cell deal of Novartis came from Elbit Imaging, a Tel Aviv-listed stock we used to own, a 30.8% holder of Gamida. NVS is investing $35 mn in return for ~15% of the capital of the stem cell capital and an option to buy out most of the EMITF stake (24.7% of the capital) and the majority of shares from the other listed holders, Clal BiotechnologyIsrael Healthcare VentureTevaAmgen,Denali Ventures, and Auriga Ventures. The payments will be made if NiCord, the new Gamida product, meets certain milestones next year. The options expire in H1 2016 if not exercised. If exercised, NVS will have to pay $165 mn to buy out Elbit and another $435 mn if milestones are met. The phase 1-2 trials will be for treating blood cancers and sickle cell disease. The note from Elbit said “there is no certainty that the investment will be completed and/or that Novartis will exercise the option and/or that the milestones will be achieved and/or the product or any other products will reach the market.” This is not material for TEVA or AMGN but is for Novartis. Teva handled the trials for an earlier stem cell product StemEx and sold most of its stake in Gamida after the FDA demanded more costly trials.

*Martin Ferera notes that Apache is funding its huge offshore Western Australian oil find by selling its half share in a British Columbia liquefied natural gas project. He argues that unlike the BC LNG plant which may never be built or linked up to gasfields, the one we own thanks to him is on track:

Veresen looks like it will happen. Its share price did not jump when Apache pulled out and the re-contracting of its giant Alliance pipeline is the reason. Veresen (FCGYF) is a 50% shareholder with Enbridge (ENB) in Alliance. It and the Aux Sable pipeline are linked with ENB and FCGYF each owning 42.7% of Aux Sable and Williams Cos the rest. The two pipelines may lose some tolls when the re-contracting is done, but will attract new shale business form Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Dakotas (US) now under development.

RBC Dominion Securities' Robert Kwan says revenue declines will be “not be as severe as initially thought”. With most Alliance contracts expiring in 2015, he worried about Veresen's ability to sign new gas transport deals. RBC now says “we estimate revenue decline from recontracting could be minimal.”

Moreover, having an LNG plan under development in Jordan Cove (Oregon) gives investors in FDGYF more “upside.” Mr Kwan rates Versen an outperform and upped his target price to C$21 from 18.

Another Canadian brokerage, TD, updated its forecasts and target price to C$19, “driven by an assumption that Veresen sells equity interests at 1.5x costs, partly offset by a later in-service date and a slightly lower ownership interest (down to 45%.)”

TD added: “We believe the Jordan Cove LNG project could be transformational [and] assign a 60% probability that the project proceeds and attribute $5.50/sh value for” it. Alliance is “positioned to attract liquids-rich gas from resources plays including Montney/Duvernay and the Bakken, in our view.”

*BCE is among the firms the Canadian telecom regulator is investigating for how the telco trio charge for TV on mobile phones. Using your smartphone to watch TV is cheaper than using other media because the charge is only C$5/mo, with no impact on other wirelass data caps. This using the telco rather than an outfit like Netflix and violates “net neutrality” and hampers competition. The other telcos are also in Ottawa's sights: Rogers Communications, and Videotron (Quebecor.)

*Analysts have begun covering Performance Sports Group (PSG, formerly Bauer Performance) now that it is NYC-listed. Morgan Stanley started coverage with an overweight rating today. D.A. Davidson yesterday set a $21 target price for PSG which is $17.34 now.

*News that Daehan Shipbuilding has filed for US chapter 15 bankruptcy has boosted our Shinhan Group, the Korea bank which is a major creditor. Chapter 15 would recognize the Korean bankruptcy proceedings as covering the US debt of Daehan. It has $100 mn to $500 mn in assets and $500 mn to $1 bn in debt, most owed to other creditors beside SHG.

*Portugal Telecom reports Aug. 29 on its Q2, the first since the merger with Oi and the first since the collapse of the Banco Espirito Santo, in which it held stock and also where it place cash in short-term commercial paper. Most analysts rate it hold (39) with 10 buys and 8 sells.

*While our newest Russia play, meatpacker OJSC Gruppa Cherkizovo is down to $11.65 from the $12 I paid, for its GDR, CHE:UK, an older play, Yandex, YNDX of Holland, is up on hopes that a deal will be done over the Ukraine by Putin.

*Your editor bought more Naibu in the UK at 1.1618 pence. In for a penny, in for a pound. NBU:GB.

Fund notes:

*Our Pakistan Fund, XDBNSCIPAK or HK:3106, has fallen under the combined pressure of Indian claims that Pakistan is aiding Muslim separatists in Kashmir and Imran Kahn's demonstrations against the current Islamabad government. The stock is now at $14.88 vs $15.30 paid. My Pakistan source in London, Dave, 13, said all governments there are corrupt starting with founder Mohammed Ali Jinneh. I suspect he is right.

*Western Emerging Market Debt Fund, ESD, cut its monthly divvie by 4.17% to $0.1150/sh from 12 cents. Yield is now 7.7% rather than 8%. It closed last week with a 10.8% discount from NAV. The last 12 cent dividend will be paid to shareholder as of Aug 20 on Aug. 29. The lower payout hits in Sept.

*Stablemate Western Emerging Markets Income Fund, EMD, cut its September quarterly dividend by 9.8% to 23 cents/sh, from 25.5 cents. Its yield, formerly 8%, is now also 7.7%. Its discount last Friday was 10.9%. Both funds are run by Legg Mason Partners Fund Advisors.

*I again tried to buy Aberdeen Japan Equity, JEQ, but didn't price it high enough, lured in by its 11.7% discount from NAV at the close of last week. I want to at least get the fund at a double digit discount. One more try and then I will give up.

*My basis for buying Benitec Biopharma was misstated on my E-trade brokerage account. It was not $2, but $4.40 for purchases made before the ADR was issued by the Oz biotech research shop. We do well but not that well. BTEBY is down a bit today but still riding high.

Disclosure: None

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