Richmond Fed Manufacturing Rebounded In January

Fifth District manufacturing activity rebounded in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index jumped to 20 in January from -5 in December. Investing.com had forecast 9. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends is now at 4.7, which indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing

 

Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Fifth District manufacturing activity rebounded in January, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −5 in December to 20 in January, as all three components—shipments, new orders, and employment—increased. Local business conditions also improved as this index saw its largestincrease since February 2013. Manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to strengthen in the coming months.

Survey results indicate that both employment and wages rose for survey participants in January. However, firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. They expected this difficulty to persist but wages and employment to continue to grow in the next six months.

The average growth rates of both price paid and prices received by survey respondents fell in January. Growth of prices received outpaced that of prices paid, but firms expect the growth rate of prices paid to rise and that of prices received to fall in the near future. Link to Report

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

since 2000

 

Is today's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).

 

Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

 

Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

 

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