Video Length: 00:43:24

A trader’s job isn’t to have opinions about the market, it’s to make money. So, if the market is performing well or telling us something, we listen.

We’ve been concerned about the fundamentals of the market, and specifically the fast spike in interest rates. That can dislocate algorithmic trading, and it can cause a big drop fast, a 5%-7% down day sort of move. We think that risk is still out there. But the S&P 500 and the SPY finished above our bullish levels last week, so we respect that.

There are still things happening underneath the surface, and we’ve been adjusting the model portfolio exposure we run to account for that. Adding the DIA and IWM and even a little XLF at times gives us exposure to market upside, while acknowledging that the reopen trade and market rotation is happening, which has made us short the QQQ in our model portfolio.

All of those factors also leave us pretty positive on Bitcoin. Inflation, near-term technicals, its undervaluation compared to gold on a market cap basis, all of that leaves us thinking that Bitcoin can work in the near term and in the long term.

The video discusses all of these points in more detail.

00:30 - Reviewing the market key levels

• What’s behind the numbers

• The continued threat of a spike of interest rates

• Adjusting exposure for the current interest rate and market environment

8:00 - Why respect the market

• Focus on what’s working

• Make sure fundamentals and technicals line up

• The market can overwhelm traders

10:45 - What is keeping us from being fully bullish

• The spiky jump with interest rates

• The risk reward and expected probability-weighted outcomes

• Adapting to this situation

• Inflation expectations could play out negatively

• Reopening trade trends bear watching

17:30 - What to watch for this week

• FOMC meeting on March 17

• Recent market reactions to Fed talks - not great

Bitcoin Breakdown - Why we’re bullish

20:15 - Explaining the bull case

• Bitcoin as a part of the general tech bull run

• Pegging Bitcoin to the value of gold

• The Tether risk

27:00 - What are the fundamentals for Bitcoin?

• Inflation, and accelerating inflation, as a driver

• The alternative to traditional fiat currencies

• The adoption story, especially at the institutional level

• The dominant cryptocurrency leads to network effect

32:00 - How sure are we about inflation given the drop in demand?

• Money printing might go on too long

• Economic recovery + extensive Fed support = inflationary environment

• Oil price, ISM index, and PCE index all signs of inflation

• Watching the trend closely in bitcoin

The Week Ahead - What To Watch For - 37:15

• What might take us from “Chickenbear” to Bear or vice versa