Some economists were in disbelief regarding the huge collapse in retail sales in December. Other indicators now confirm.

Here is a pair of Tweets on the subject.

Last week everyone said retail sales numbers had to be wrong because Redbook survey hadn’t declined.

This chart answers that question. https://t.co/lYeLPITsjT

— Jonathan Tepper (@jtepper2) February 18, 2019

Redbook

The Johnson Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales and provides advanced estimates of trends in retail sales ahead of official releases and company reports in an easy-to-read four-page report. The weekly indicator is made public every Tuesday morning, with clients receiving notice via conference call, e-mail or fax prior to public release.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Monthly is a comprehensive report of same-store sales data reported monthly by general merchandise and apparel retailers. The analysis is given on current month sales, year-on-year, quarterly and annual sales, historical sales data and company rankings. Retailers are tracked across categories: Apparel Specialty, Books, Toy & Hobby, Department, Discount, Footwear, Furniture, Drug, Home Improvement, Home Furnishings, Electronic, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index (SSI), an index of year-on-year same-store sales growth is reported in each edition.

Shockingly Weak Retail Sales

Redbook ties in with my report Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Down 1.2% in December, Sharpest Decline Since 2009

And it's not just retail sales either.

Other Confirming Indicators

1. Autos: Surge in Auto Loan Delinquencies: Auto Loans in High Gear
2. Credit Card Stress: Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising
3. Falling Imports: Trade Deficit Shrinks in November Primarily Due to Falling Imports
4. Industrial Production: Industrial Production Dives, Wiping Out a Strong December and Then Some

Very Recessionary

Add it all up and it looks very recessionary. And the EU is already there. Eurozone Recession: Right Here, Right Now!

There is no reason to believe the US will be immune to a global slowdown. People thought that China would decouple in 2008. It didn't. The US won't either.