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There are so many conflicting data points out there. We have rising credit defaults, but inflation is falling, and income is rising. We have more global unrest than we’ve had in decades but the Conference Board’s global real GDP forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were unchanged in April. They continue to project that the Global Economy will grow by 3% this year and by 3.1% in 2025. Office space is selling for bargain prices and at recession pricing but home prices keep rising. People are fleeing major cities, but that is the suburb’s gain (probably a significant contributor to rising home prices).

Until income breaks, though, one has to tilt the scales to continued expansion.

“Davidson” submits:

Real Personal Income continues to rise boosted slightly by prior months' revisions higher. Looking at the current trend, it matches the trend pre-COVID. This remains positive for economic expansion.

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