Week 31 of 2021 shows the same week total rail traffic (from the same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

Total rail traffic has two components - carloads and intermodal (containers or trailers on rail cars). This week again both carloads and intermodal continued in expansion year-over-year - with the rate of acceleration of growth slowing.

We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) expanded 8.3 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors moved from +5.7 % to +7.0 %

When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

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This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] ).

A summary for this week from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 509,607 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.4 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending August 7 were 234,336 carloads, up 6.3 percent compared with the same week in 2020, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 275,271 containers and trailers, down 0.6 percent compared to 2020.

For some rail traffic categories, percentage changes for the current week compared with the same week in 2020 are inflated because of the widespread shutdowns — and subsequent large reduction in rail volumes — that impacted many economic sectors last year at this time.

Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2020. They included metallic ores and metals, up 7,424 carloads, to 23,193; coal, up 7,301 carloads, to 66,838; and nonmetallic minerals, up 3,131 carloads, to 33,759. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2020 included grain, down 3,730 carloads, to 18,190; motor vehicles and parts, down 2,937 carloads, to 13,230; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 1,106 carloads, to 10,188.

For the first 31 weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,141,531 carloads, up 9 percent from the same point last year; and 8,673,507 intermodal units, up 14.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 31 weeks of 2021 was 15,815,038 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 12 percent compared to last year.

The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.

[click on the graph below to enlarge]