Week 32 of 2019 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors rolling averages remain in contraction - and improved.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average change from the rolling average of one year ago | Trend Direction | |
| 4 week rolling average | -4.7 % | improving |
| 13 week rolling average | -5.5 % | slowing |
| 52 week rolling average | -1.4 % | slowing |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 533,190 carloads and intermodal units, down 4.3 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending August 10 were 261,194 carloads, down 3.9 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 271,996 containers and trailers, down 4.6 percent compared to 2018.
Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They were nonmetallic minerals, up 3,624 carloads, to 41,976; petroleum and petroleum products, up 1,543 carloads, to 13,424; and miscellaneous carloads, up 754 carloads, to 10,195. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 included coal, down 13,332 carloads, to 77,300; metallic ores and metals, down 1,483 carloads, to 22,347; and forest products, down 577 carloads, to 10,020.
For the first 32 weeks of 2019, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,077,512 carloads, down 3.2 percent from the same point last year; and 8,510,590 intermodal units, down 3.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 32 weeks of 2019 was 16,588,102 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 3.5 percent compared to last year.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -3.9 % | -4.6 % | -4.3 % |
| -- Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | -0.1 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -3.2 % | -3.6 % | -3.5 % |
[click on the graph below to enlarge]
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