Week 19 of 2021 shows the same week total rail traffic (from the same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Total rail traffic - which has been in contraction for over one year - is now surging as it is being compared to the pandemic lockdown period one year ago.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We are now seeing great rail growth as the data is being compared to the coronavirus lockdown period last year.

Total rail traffic has two components - carloads and intermodal (containers or trailers on rail cars). This week again both carloads and intermodal continued in expansion year-over-year - continuing on a strengthening trendline.

Rail is now growing year-over-year.

We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) expanded 35.3 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors was unchanged at +34.4 %

When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

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This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] ).

A summary for this week from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 533,872 carloads and intermodal units, up 28.3 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending May 15 were 242,806 carloads, up 31.6 percent compared with the same week in 2020, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 291,066 containers and trailers, up 25.6 percent compared to 2020.

All of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2020. They included coal, up 22,374 carloads, to 68,327; motor vehicles and parts, up 9,598 carloads, to 12,466; and metallic ores and metals, up 9,592 carloads, to 23,686.

For the first 19 weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 4,341,762 carloads, up 5.2 percent from the same point last year; and 5,371,854 intermodal units, up 18.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 19 weeks of 2021 was 9,713,616 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 12.1 percent compared to last year.

The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.

[click on the graph below to enlarge]