Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At Record -32.9%, Annual Revisions

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -32.9% (-32.90% to two decimal places), a massive decline from -5.0% (-4.99% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate and its lowest on record. Investing.com had a consensus of -34.1%.

Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 2015 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of real GDP and its major components, and the first quarter of 1999 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of income and saving. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2020 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, "GDP and the Economy." [Full Release]

Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.06% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.22.

Quarterly GDP since 1947

 

Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 23.4% below trend.

with a Regression

 

A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.27%. Four of the eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.

Real GDP Year-over-Year

 

In summary, the Q2 GDP Advance Estimate of -32.9 was slightly higher than expected, but an all-time record low for GDP.

Other GDP updates (updated after GDP monthly piece):

Real GDP Per Capita

Visualizing GDP

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