Putin blinked. Netanyahu didn't.

From The Times of Israel, a daily newspaper, today:

"President Shimon Peres said Tuesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu torpedoed a peace deal reached covertly in 2011 with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Peres said that he and Abbas had essentially reached a draft agreement on 'almost all issues' and that an accord was being readied, after a series of secret meetings in Jordan.

"Peres said that the prime minister asked him to wait 3 or 4 days, in the hopes that Quartet Representative and former British prime minister Tony Blair could negotiate a better deal.

"'The days went by and there was no better deal,' said Peres. 'Netanyahu stopped it" [the potential agreement].

"The president told [Israeli Channel 2] TV that during these talks, held in Amman, Abbas agreed to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, a core demand of the Israeli government and a crutch in the most recent round of negotiations.

'"He was supposed to agree [to recognize] a Jewish state and we were supposed to agree to recognize [a future] Palestinian state,' said Peres.

"US-brokered Israeli-Palestinian peace talks which began last summer ended abruptly in April without an agreement. After 9 months of negotiations, Israel last month suspended further negotiations over the unity agreement between rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas reached 2 weeks ago.

"Netanyahu said in US television interviews that the Israeli government 'will be there, I’ll be there' if there was a genuine partner for peace. But the unity pact showed that Israel had no such partner at present.

"Contrary to statements made by other Israel officials, [like] Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s recent remark that Abbas had no real desire for peace, Peres said that the Palestinian Authority president was indeed a partner. 'I’ve known Abu Mazen [Abbas] for 30 years…and the truth is he has fought terror with the resources that he has,' Peres said during the interview. 'He talks about peace and makes courageous remarks' he added."

Since our readers invest a lot of shekalim in Israel companies, we have to keep up with mounting evidence on the real reason Secretary of State Kerry's peace talks have broken down again. As in 2011, to quote Shimon Peres, "Netanyahu stopped it."

More for paid subscribers on significant news from the UK Alternative Investing Market; and the hot internet stock today (Alibaba). We examine the underlying reasons for the Russian withdrawal from the eastern Ukraine border region and the delay allowed for Ukraine to pay its gas bill. Plus 2 energy notes and 2 company reports issued late yesterday from western Canada after the markets closed. These are for paid subscribers only. Join them and your portfolio will gain in value.

*Agrium stock fell to C$101.75 after it reported on its Q1 and beat analyst forecasts on both sales and profits. The main reason is that it warned that Q2 earnings will come in below consensus estimates. AGU Q1 profits came in at 7 cents vs a consensus average of 5 cents, excluding non-recurring items. Revenues, while down 2.4% from Q1 2013, were higher than the Standard & Poor's Capital IQ consensus of US$2.99 bn, at 3.08 bn. Q1 in the Canadian plant nutrition business is always low. AGU expects eps in Q2 to be between $US3.85 and 4.35 from continuing operations vs S&P optimistic talk of $4.98/sh. It also warned that the Carseland nitrogen plant outage will cut production levels and add costs in Q2, accounting for ~35 cents off from prior EPS estimates. AGU reports in US$. Its US share price fell about 47 cents today to $95.35. US reports initially said AGU profits fell 98% in Q1 which caused some selling here.

*Another Canadian reporting yesterday, IAM Gold, had more mixed results. It beat the Capital IQ Standard & Poor's consensus estimate by a penny with profits of $12.2 mn or 3 cents/sh excluding non-recurring items which counts as a positive surprise. However its sales fell 8.5% y/y to $279.3 mn, and came in below the S&P forecast of $283.3 mn. While volumes were up, the realized gold price was lower than last year. IAG is engaged in a tough cost-cutting program and its cost of gold sold in Q1 came in at $1198/oz, down $92/oz, and well within its 2014 target level of $1150-1250/oz which it reaffirmed. But the cost of production is still above the 2013 average of $1110/oz and also higher than the Q4 2013 level of $1190/oz. Lower production levels boost the cost/oz and as production increases further, the cost per ounce produced should fall. But Q1 failed this test.

IAG also maintained its production target for the year of 835-900 thousand oz.

Other features of Q1 include the start of a new processing line at Essakane in Burkino Faso which is producing much more gold; and a 5-yr accord with Sarafina to target higher grade more cheaply mined gold in the Suriname Rosebel mine, and cut output ~10%. IAG continues investing in building out the Westwood underground mine in Canada which will come on stream later this year with an eventual production level of 1 mn oz. Output at Sadiola (Mali) was flat as IAG and its majority partner AngloGold Ashanti work out the way to develop the sulphide project there. IAG debt levels are not due for another 3 or more years and it should be able to repay with (I hope) less beaten down loonies and the prospective higher priced gold. It also produces niobium. IAG reports in US$.

*Now for Alibaba and the 40 Thieves. As noted many times, Jack Ma's firm chose to list in the USA to avoid Hong Kong's stricter rules on corporate governance. While it is still unclear where the multi-billion ipo will be listed (ALIB-Q? ALB-NYSE?) what is clear is that the top execs will be able to name a majority of the future Alibaba board. Meanwhile our Tencent, operator of the rival WeChat e-commerce business and the rival Tenpay on-line payments system is competing with market leader Alibaba and Alipay. TCTZF is more cellphone oriented and offers store-owners commission-free ads, while Alibaba charges for them. Bloomberg thinks the ipo price level will make Alibaba 2nd to only Google among internet companies when it lists ~12% at $20 bn in the largest ever IPO in the USA.

*As for AIM stocks, here is something published today by Britain's Investor's Chronicle's Simon Thompson, cut by me:

"Vexed by a conundrum in Agatha Christie's short story 'The Incredible Thief', Hercule Poirot replies: 'It's a small problem but one that will agitate the little grey cells adequately.' My little grey cells have been doing overtime to solve the mystery of Camkids (CAMK: 68 pence), a Chinese designer, manufacture, and distributor of outdoor apparel and accessories for children, one of the 12 constituents of my 2014 bargain share portfolio, the weakest performer to date. [I] have uncovered some finding worthy of [the] Belgian ace detective and identified why this should prove to be a profitable entry point in this recovery play." More follows but you have to subscribe to read the full screed. The point is that CAMK which is listed in London rose 5% to 70 pence today and from 68 pence when he wrote thanks to the article and now probably has further to run.

*Naibu (NBU:AIM) another maker of Chinese children's clothing, is up in sympathy from 66 pence Friday to 68 p today.

*Also up 0.4% is Africa Opportunity Fund in UK trading. (AROFF is not moving here.) Note that all the British listed global stocks rising on the AIM are in fact doing better still because the pound sterling is at a new high against the greenback.

*Raven Rus at 68.5 p is also up. RUS: AIM. It should also gain further because Putin blinked and will withdraw the 20,000 Russian soldiers huddled around the Ukraine border.

*Yandex, our other Russia play, is up marginally in Nasdaq trading today and back over our cost basis. YNDX is a Dutch-based supplier of Internet search to Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey.

*Also up is our Poland play, iShares MSCI Poland Capped Investible ETF, EPOL.

*IMHO the reason Putin and Gazprom blinked is that Russia is as dependent on European gas purchases from Gazprom as Europe is. Russia has no real alternative market for its pipelined gas.

China, thanks to Anton Oilfield Services (ATONY-OTC) whose technology is developing China's considerable shale oil reserves. China doesn't need to add a pipeline to Siberia as expected thanks to ATONY in which Schlumberger Ltd of the Netherlands owns 20% and shares shale search technology. ATONY (like CAMK) was written up by Vivian Ng.

*As briefly noted already, the two operating subs of Delek Group (owner of 31.3%), operator Noble Energy (with 36%), and other owners of the Tamar offshore gasfield, which is in production, are in talks with Union Fenosa Gas SA, a Spanish company with a shut-in gas liquefaction plant in Egypt's Nile Delta. More details from Globes Israel website emerged after the 4-day holiday weekend today. The bottom line is $19.5 bn over 20 years with pricing linked to the Brent oil price. Tamar has a surplus now because a power plant conversion to gas was delayed. The Israeli partners expect the letter of intent with Fenosa to result in a formal binding contract by Q3 turning over 20% of the Tamar field to the Spanish firm.

Delek Group is raising $2 bn in bonds on the Israel, US, and European markets later this week to fund development of the Leviathan field, also with Noble of Texas. Raising the money will give Mediterranean gas consumers an alternative to Russian supply; it may also give DGRLY the ability to pull out of an expired deal with Australian Woodside Petroleum. WPL missed the deadline because of its tax concession demands on Jerusalem and the Memorandum of Understanding with the Leviathan drillers is nullified.

Of course if the linkup with the Delta gas liquefaction plant goes through it is another alternative source than Gazprom for European gas consumers.

*The Financial Times today wrote that Hikma Pharma is rising on speculation that it may become a target of fellow-generics drugmaker Mylan. HKMPY

*Benitec Biopharma of Oz is up ~10% on huge volume today but there is nothing I can find to explain it and we are still below our basis. It researches ddRNAi gene silencing and has won private placement investments from US specialist institutional investors led by RA Capital Mgm. BNIKF.

*Veolia Environnement will supply water recycling treatment services to Ecopetrol in the Llanos Basin oilfield in a remote area of southeast Colombia under a $73 mn contract just announced. VIE is the company I considered investing in to have a water play in Europe after we sold out of Brazilian ute Saneamento de São Paulo after its reservoirs ran dry. The trouble was that Veolia rose ~40% until about 6 months ago and then just sat there while my brokerage source kept telling me to buy it. Once EC separates out the water from the oil at the Castilla drilling site, it has to be processed further before it can become part of the water supply. This is being done by VIE whose separation will also increase oil output. Instead we bought Abengoa of Spain, ABGB, thanks to Frida Ghitis' research.

*I bought C.I. Finance (CIFAF) at $33.02/sh yesterday.

*I bought Lenzing (LNZNF) at $62.50 Monday. In both cases I used the US listed share rather than going local despite warnings of illiquidity and got good prices in both cases.