Nearly every year, the national debt rises more than the deficit. The picture is guaranteed to get worse.

Fantasyland Thinking

Please recall Trump's preposterous claim that he will use tariffs to pay down the national debt.

..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 5, 2018

That is truly Fantasyland thinking. In fact, it is so preposterous, one has to wonder if it is a purposeful lie. Then again, we are talking about Trump, so perhaps he does believe it.

Data for these charts from US Government Debt, not an official government website.

Projections vs Reality

In nearly all cases, the increase in national debt is way higher than projected deficits. Why?

Because the projected deficit does not include all of the amount owed to the Social Security Trust Fund. That amount is called off-budget. But when the calendar year rolls over, the difference magically appears on the balance sheet as actual debt.

Actual and Projected Debt

Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt

That picture is where lie meets reality. Let's total it up.

Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt Totals Through 2023

The total projected debt increase for 2018-2023 is $6.826 trillion.

The total projected deficit increase for 2018-2023 is $5.352 trillion.

Deficit Scam

Excluding Social Security from the deficit is an accounting scam.

The cumulative deficit lie for the years 2018-2023 is $1.473 trillion.

Expect Much Worse

The story is even much worse. Those numbers assume no recession through 2023.