Price To Forecasted Hope

There are countless ways to evaluate equities, and they all have glaring flaws. Equity valuation is not a science with predictive formulas. It is subjective, and the formulas themselves and the interpretation of the results rely on an estimate of what the future holds.

Some models use historical data under the assumption that the current trend will be predictive of the future while others use forecasts that differ from the past. It is a rare occasion that the past neatly maps out the future or, for that matter, that anyone accurately predicts the future. No model represents the holy grail of investing, but understanding their inputs and outputs can reveal a lot about relative valuations and the sentiment of a market. As investors, we need to take into account all types of valuation techniques and their assumptions, especially those that may not confirm our current investment thesis.

Differences between various valuation models allows one to construct a bearish or bullish outlook simply by choosing the model that produces the appropriate outcome. Recently, Price to Forward Earnings (P/fE) has been flashing a buy signal and has been used by many investors as evidence that stocks are cheap. At the same time, as shown below, most other traditional valuation models are pointing to a market that is anywhere from 65% to 95% overvalued. What gives?

Choosing E?

Price to earnings is one of the most popular forms of equity valuation. It is a logical approach given that earnings, the profits available after all expenses, are ultimately what investors are buying. The basic price to earnings ratio (P/E) simply tells us what multiple the market is paying for profits. For instance, a P/E of 20 means investors are willing to pay 20 times the current level of earnings to own shares of the company. Theoretically, in this case, if a company’s earnings are flat for eternity, the investor will earn a 5% (1/20) annual return. If future earnings exceed current earnings, the return will be greater than 5%, and the return will be less than 5% if the opposite is true about earnings..

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