Paris On My Mind

Being back in the City of Light where I lived so long, I am having deep thoughts about investing prospects, not because I have been reading the Piketty book, because I haven't boought it yet, but just because my tracked performance has been so much better than usual and I am more likely to be gaining from luck than smarts. I am always getting cold feet mainly because too many indicators in the stock market are green and too many sur la rue are lousy. It is likeLes Miserables out here. Our old neighborhood is studded with closed shops visible poverty plus a sense of menace from the locals who could not afford to get away. A seller of Les Sans Abri, a magazine intended to help the homeless by giving them something to peddle, stalked my husband as we walked to the Ile de la CIte this morning and was joined by a larger female ostenstibly trying to get signatures for a petition which I didn't trouble to find out the purpose of.  The menace was new. These were not a pair of friendly local clochards.

There was, of course, not a cop in sight; they are all off in the country for August even though tourists need protection too. I think the stock market is seriously ahead of itself in p/e terms and there is too much froth, above all in internets and biotechs, but also a seepage into other sectors. In fact, according to analysts cited by Mark Hulbert, disparity between sectoral performance is one of the indicators of a market top. M. Hulbert writes Hulbert's Financial Digest for Dow-Jones. France's economy of course is a mess because the wrong lefty  became president, and he has no idea about economics, unlike the sexfiend Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Portugual where I was earlier in the summer is in even worse shambles because of the failure of a large bank, something like the fall of Creditanstalt in Austria, amother minor player at the time, which triggered the Great Crash.

Britain and the US seem to be riding high but there are major political risks what with Russia and Israel. London is full of Russki oligarchs upon which its economy depends. The US needs to unhook its politics from Israeli excess, if only so both countries can hold their heads up. And then there's  Argentina. I am convinced we are hitting a correction, and after communicating my unease to M. Hulbert, I decided it might be better to act upon it. I am a trimmer and like to sell half my positions and favor exiting what is in my IRA over what is in my taxable account.

I am taking profits from B to Z.

*Bladex is vulnerable because US Republicans want to kill the Ex-Im Bank, one of its owners. I am selling half my BLX.

*Canadian Solar is vulnerable because US tariffs on Chinese photo voltaic are prohibitive and CSIQ lacks US political clout. Again I sell half.

*Maybe the shorts have a point. Half sale also for Chicago Bridge + Iron, CBI,.which is a big gainer for us.

*Delek Middle East ambitions may have Arab govt support but the street rules. We cannot expect Jordan or Egypt to go ahead with deals.Sell half DGRLY.

*Following Harry Geisel we are exiting GlaxoSmithKline mainly because its dividend is at risk for two reasons: its poor earnings outlook, and the fact that its lower stock price means it may become a target for a rival pharma group. I am not necessarily following Harry in what I do with the proceeds. GSK.

*Take that HADSY loss. It will probably never revive. Set a slightly higher selling price than it commands and wait to exit Hadassit Bio Holdings.

*If they can't afford bread will they eat Lox? Take some money of the table for our salmon fishery, Marine Harvest, MHG.

*Nokia has been brilliant but things can go wrong with the stock if not the bonds. Sell half NOK.

*Orocobre is doing fine but Argentina is scary even for an Oz company with strong Asia backing.

*Sell half the Vale because of uncertainty in Brazil politics and Chinese iron demand. VALE

*Korea is the point country for political risk and there is plenty out there. Take profits on Shinhan Group. SHG.

*Switerland is a haven which is losing its financial edge. Having averaged up I can sell half my Zurich Financial, ZURVY.

*Fund investments depend not only on fundamentals but also on investor sentiment. I am selling half of the following funds with losses: Thai Fund and Mongolia Growth, TTF and MNGGF.

*And not liking a fund betting the farm, I am selling half my Fibra Uno in Mexico, FBASF.

I use limit orders and for obvious reasons I will not share them with you because I am not that benevolent.

Disclosure: None

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