One Plus One Equals Three

Conclusion

As we saw earlier this year, the Fed can change its tune quickly, but history tells us it won’t respond to one month’s worth of jobs numbers, especially when the “economy is in a good place.” I do look for changes in the blue dots, however. First up, the 2020 rate hike has to come off the table. I think the likeliest Fed scenario for next week is: “on hold” for this year, with the plot building for rate cuts as the next policy move. And you thought summertime in the bond market would be boring.

Unless otherwise stated, data source is Bloomberg, as of June 7, 2019.

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