One Hell Of A Seasonal Adjustment: NAR's Existing Home Sales Math

The NAR says existing home sales are down 2.2% from a year ago. The breakouts by price range do not seem to add up.

The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Falter 1.7% in June

Total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June. Sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018).

Percent Sales by Price Range


Percent Changes From Year Ago by Price Range


The NAR's Supplemental Data provides a look at regional differences.

Supplemental Data


Weighted Contributions


Down 10% on a 35.7% distribution overwhelms up 1.0% on a 39.4% contribution.

I calculate net weighted sales as -4.72% year-over-year based on the NAR's Sales Distribution Percentages.

Seasonal Adjustments

I bounced this off Calculated Risk who tells me there was a huge seasonal adjustment this year. To my way of thinking, seasonal adjustments should not affect year-over-year comparisons.

But it did, as presented.

It's one hell of a seasonal adjustment.

Explaining the Sales Decline

Please also see Existing Homes Prices Up 88th Month: NAR Can't Figure Out Why Sales Are Down

Disclaimer: The content on Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.