Today's publication of two contrasting purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) may mark a major market shift. On the one hand, the HSBC March 'flash' survey of Chinese manufacturing outlook came up with a prediction of further decline. The index, which means slowdown if it is below 50, was well below consensus forecasts of 48.7. It was at 48.1, so domestic production is likely to fall by 4%. As this means China will probably take policy measures to boost, the Chinese stock index rose on the news.

Meanwhile, in the Olde World, of all countries, France, reported a surprise jump in its Markit March PMI, to 51.9 vs economists' forecasts that it would merely match February's level of 49.7. As a result of the surprising growth (and the gains of the far-right Front National in the weekend elections) the CAC 40 Paris stock index fell 1.3% aujourd'hui, and 4 out of 5 listed French companies went into the red.

Wall Street fell on the China gauge because nobody has any time for France except as tourists.

One of the top performing stocks in the past week was Japan's Fanuc Corp., a share your editor bought mainly for more control and liquidity than we get with the smaller stocks written up by Chris Loew, our Japan correspondent. JP:8954 is a robotics company I got to know when it opened a subsidiary there when I lived in Paris, to supply French auto-makers. It is an indirect way to own a car. Despite its high price I finally bought it as the yen declined. It rose over 3.2% more in Japan trading today. (Because I already had the yen in my account from a share sale, I bought in Japan although there is also an American Depositary Receipt, FANUY. Although the Japanese currency has fallen since I bought in Jan. 2012, the Japanese stock is up 35% from my purchase price and the ADR up 20%. Plus there's a 1%/yr dividend.

Another investment not in the model portfolio has also had banner returns, the Morgan Stanley Institutional Frontier Markets Fund, MFMIX, owned via conversion from a closed-end fund. My newsletter doesn't have the resources to cover the thousands of open-end mutual funds so we dropped coverage especially since new investments were unwelcome. MFMIX, bought for $8 a year ago, is now $19.77.

Recounting this history leads to today's revised forecasts for 2014 based on recent trends. Not only is China to be down-weighted and France (and Euroland) raised. We also need to rethink our overweight in biotechs and pharma, and in big emerging markets (like 4 of the 5 BRICS--Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.) Both sectors are under pressure now. I will continue to look for stocks investing in emerging Africa, Asia, and the Middle East --- places like Ethiopia, Jordan or the 'Stans. I remain a pushover for funds and REITs investing in markets like Mongolia, Myanmar, and Mexico, Russia, and frontier Africa. I also retain my taste for emerging markets debt as we move into the taper.

I still like Poland.

That's the macro-economic side. I am also getting out of biotech which has done very well for us and looking at similarly wild and unruly start-ups in other sectors, notably mining, oil search, and batteries. This means buying high-risk penny stocks that are essentially over-laden with debt but which just may have a great product that works. You need to diversify because they can crash.

More for paid subscribers follows including some trades which the rest of you will only be able to learn about when they have been completed. When I sell I do not share with readers what I aim to get for my shares lest I be gazumphed by someone offering to sell at a penny less than my ask. (I learned the hard way). Of course I will not share the stock name with non-subscribers.

*The stock which ticks both negative boxes is Indian pharma producer Dr Reddy's Labs, tipped by Patti the Biotech Maven in July 2010 at $25 and change and now at $44-45. We also got a dividend of 0.5%, more or less eaten up by ADR fees. Two things worry me about RDY: India's rep for poor drug manufacturing standards (which has touched the share a couple of times); and its gamble on biosimilars, which is a new hard nut to crack. But my main reason for wanting out is that I doubt that Narendra Modi's BJP is as pro-business as expected. I sold half my shares this morning at $45.25.

*This also led me to take some profits last week in Ascendas India Trust, a Singapore REIT invested in India commercial and office properties. Out of sheer perversity I put part of the loot into Raven Rus, RUS:LSE.

*I refuse to sell any gold because India is likely to buy more as the election approaches. If I were an Indian Muslim I would buy gold. To make it easier, the Reserve Bank of India, their CB, today doubled the amount of gold Indians can import and added 5 private banks (including HSBC) to the list of those allowed to deal gold. Experts think the 20% dealer markup will fall as more gold is made available. The 50% surcharge still applies on gold imports.

*Chris's picks are okay, just not doing as well as Fanuc, which is easier for foreign funds to get into. BP Castrol (5015:Tokyo) rose 2% today; Tsumara (4540) fell modestly ex-div; DeNA (2432; DENAF) rose but is a manic-depressive gaming share just under half owned by its ESOP, Japanese and US banks, and co-founder Shogo Kawada.

*Our internets include obvious plays like Nokia which is suffering after its sale of its handset unit to Microsoft was delayed a month pending Indian and Chinese approvals of the deal. It now is scheduled for April rather than March. Not to be outdone, Tamil Nadu State is now seeking taxes for NOK's Chennai plant in addition to the central government taxman. Showing Tamil fangs the state taxl, at €300 mn tops even the New Delhi bill. NOK stock fell 2.8% in London this morning.

*Our oil search fave is Schlumberger Ltd. which today revealed that it expects Q1 earnings to beat greatly thanks to spending by non-major (government owned and indie) oil companies on shale and offshore search. The majors have been cutting budgets in North America and Russia both for political and weather reasons and because the US has a shale gas glut.

SLB got business at the expense of rivals. The consensus Thomson-Reutersforecast before today was that SLB will earning $1.22/sh in Q1 vs $1.0l a year ago. SLB is run out of Houston, controlled by a French family, and incorporated in Holland. It is essentially a xeno-company with no real homeland. But 70% of its sales are outside North America which confirms it as a share for us. SLB is up today.

*SLB's 20% stake led us to Anton Oilfields, a Hong Kong listed private sector firm with HQ in Beijing, which is heading the shale search on behalf of state-owned oil companies in 4 regions of China plus a bit in other countries. China needs to replace polluting coal power stations whatever the growth numbers show. Despite today's updates from JP Morgan and Credit Suisse, I wouldn't buy Yanzhou Coal Mining in a slowing growth period when Chinese air quality is a political issue.

*Delek Group reportedly received 10 bids for offtaking offshore natural gas from its monster Leviathan field (45.33% owned; partner Noble Energy of TX at 39+%; Ratio Oil the rest ) for liquefaction in Cyprus or Turkey. Among them, according to Globes Israel website, are RWE of Germany and Turcas Petrol of Turkey. After posting its first loss since 1949, RWE sold its oil and gas unit to Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman's Letter1 group for €5.1 bn so it can afford new ventures.

DGRLY counts as an oil service firm because the insurance conglomerate financed the Israeli offshore Mediterranean search. It reports after the TASE closes next Monday (8:30 am US time).

*Friday I wrote up Electrovaya, a classic high-risk money-burning small-cap firm with a controlling family shareholder and, being in clean-tech lithium-ion batteries, political connections in its native Canada for financial help and a chance to join trade missions (one to Germany is on now.) Although it is not a biotech or an Israeli startup, the risk pattern is similar. Its AGM is Friday. EFLVF

*If Royal Bank of Scotland sells its Citizen's Bank US sub to Sumitomo Mitsui Bank it will add to its currency risk with our dollar-denominated preferreds while lowering the default risk dramatically.

*Compugen, the Israeli drug-discovery stock which sold a bunch of shares last month at a 26% discount, continues to bear the price of its naivete.

*CGEN pushed down Teva, a fellow Israeli, today. People worry that the US Supremes may not hear TEVA's patent case in time to rescue copaxone from generics. It looks like the multiple sclerosis drug in its new dosage and formulation can forestall some of the patent cliff from the generics so the Supremes are no longer the key.

*In London trading, even Hikma Pharma of Jordan is down. Pharma bearishness is contagious.

*Minder Vlaamsche Biotechaktien. Galapagos NV is moving its market of reference (for order book and price discovery) to the Amsterdam Beurs from the Brussels Bourse. Its HQ is in Mechelen (Malines) Belgium. Its main shareholder, CEO Ono de Stolpe, is Dutch. Both exchanges are part of Euronext and both countries are in the Benelux, the EU, and NATO. Both offer internet trading. GLPYY since going public in 2005 has been dual listed. Flemish, the language of Mechelen is close to Dutch and Amsterdam is an older and more global markt (market) with better financial newspapers. Or it may just be the Belgian sport of linguistic fighting.

*Poland now has a maker of 3D printers, Zortrax, which just got a big order from Dell worth ~$18 mn. The stock is privately held but an IPO is under consideration by the company based in Olsztyn, according to what CEO Rafal Tomasiak (formerly with Nokia) told Reuters. He was interviewed because Zortrax is borrowing money to meet the end-year Dell delivery deadline. When issued, this is a company I want to own via EPOL, iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF.

*Caesarstone Sdot Yam, CSTE, is down. They apparently sell granite kitchen counters to Russian oligarchs. On my last trip to Germany I sat next to a young, pretty, booted, blond Russian woman recently had married to money. We discussed how she should spend on her London kitchen. As a former kibbutz-owned company, CSTE was of the left, and a natural for Russian sales. CSTE has a Moscow sales office in a biznes tsenter and a Russian language website. It also sells in St. Petersburg, Piatigorsk, Kursk, Voronezh, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Novgorod, Kaliningrad, and Tashkent (Uzbekistan). The site takes (or took) Visa and Mastercard.