Oils/Energy Stocks Ready To Climb?

We have been talking a lot about China, emerging markets, and commodities price declines over the past few months. In short, we see a slowdown for some economies and an attendant decline in share prices for firms like Caterpillar--makers of mining and construction equipment, other materials firms, and perhaps biggest of all, energy firms involved in oil and gas.

Of course, the carnage in the oil market has been linked to more than just lower demand in China. Here we have a host of theories: massive increases in supply driven by the fracking boom in the US, a postulated Saudi ploy to flood the market and undercut US frackers, the end of sanctions in Iran bringing still more crude to market, etc.

While lower energy prices may have killed the latest boom in Texas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, they have been a boon to US consumers still tied to their automobiles, the trucking industry, auto manufacturers, airlines, and other companies sensitive to the price of refined crude.

Regardless of the benefits for US-based consumers and businesses, declining prices have certainly beat up the share prices of some oil industry players. Now, some analysts believe that trend may be coming to an end and that it is time to consider buying oil stocks once again. This call is not based on fundamental data or driven by news, but rather found in technical analysis of major industry players and some surprising price action so far this week.

Basically, the chart readers argue that for many oil companies, the technicals show an extremely oversold market with potential double bottoms achieved. The word "capitulation" is being tossed around, and that is a good thing for buyers looking to pick up bargains.

Of course, market timing is always difficult, and many find that technical analysis is more akin to palm reading than a valid means of research. But, the power of TA lies in the fact that many practitioners exist and they believe it and time their purchases accordingly.

Here at ValuEngine we do not focus on technicals for our research, but we do use it as yet another factor when looking out for bargains. Obviously, if you are looking to buy low, it helps to see a bottom formation pattern on a chart. So, again, if you're looking for cheap energy/oil stocks, you have more supporting evidence for the call now than you would have just a few months ago.

When we query our systems for the various oil-related industries in the Energy Sector today, we find the following companies ranked at the top. Alon USA Partners (ALDW) is the leader of this list. Complete data, including BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendations, are available from www.ValuEngine.com.

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

Last 12-M Retrn

1-M Forecast Retn

1-Yr Forecast Retn

P/E Ratio

Industry Name

TSO

TESORO CORP

104.85

6.24%

69.06%

1.20%

14.46%

8.70

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

VLO

VALERO ENERGY

64.58

2.72%

44.41%

1.27%

15.38%

7.39

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

MPC

MARATHON PETROL

50.58

2.48%

25.07%

1.12%

13.52%

8.16

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

INT

WORLD FUEL SVCS

38.07

-21.80%

-2.26%

1.10%

13.19%

11.23

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

PBF

PBF ENERGY INC

31.33

N/A

32.03%

1.23%

14.81%

7.81

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

ALDW

ALON USA PTNRS

25.32

N/A

41.69%

1.72%

20.96%

8.27

OIL REFINING & MARKETING MLP

NTI

NORTHERN TIER

24.58

-1.61%

4.82%

1.08%

12.97%

6.00

OIL REFINING & MARKETING MLP

RDC

ROWAN COS PLC

18.76

-34.90%

-24.48%

1.09%

13.15%

6.03

OIL & GAS-DRILLNG

MUSA

MURPHY USA INC

55.05

-1.61%

6.52%

0.63%

7.51%

13.56

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

HFC

HOLLYFRONTIER

51.29

26.21%

22.59%

0.51%

6.07%

11.74

OIL REFINING & MARKETING

Below is today's data on ALDW:

Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW) owns and operates refining and petroleum products marketing business. The Company's integrated downstream business operates primarily in the South Central and Southwestern regions of the United States. It refines crude oil into finished products, which it market primarily in West Texas, Central Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. Alon USA Partners, LP is based in Texas.

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its STRONG BUY recommendation on ALON USA PTNRS for 2015-10-05. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that ALON USA PTNRS has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Momentum.

 

ValuEngine Forecast

 

Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

25.76 1.72%

3-Month

26.04 2.84%

6-Month

25.77 1.79%

1-Year

30.63 20.96%

2-Year

24.96 -1.44%

3-Year

18.04 -28.77%

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

n/a

Valuation Rank(?)

n/a

1-M Forecast Return

1.72%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

100

12-M Return

41.69%

Momentum Rank(?)

93

Sharpe Ratio

0.16

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

68

5-Y Avg Annual Return

7.44%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

73

Volatility

45.71%

Volatility Rank(?)

39

Expected EPS Growth

14.22%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

48

Market Cap (billions)

1.58

Size Rank

72

Trailing P/E Ratio

8.27

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

94

Forward P/E Ratio

7.24

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

92

PEG Ratio

0.58

PEG Ratio Rank

56

Price/Sales

0.56

Price/Sales Rank(?)

79

Market/Book

8.07

Market/Book Rank(?)

15

Beta

0.23

Beta Rank

77

Alpha

0.28

Alpha Rank

89

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 39.28% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 11.96% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Two sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

Disclosure: None.

ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 7,000 US and Canadian equities every trading ...

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