November Data Starts Out Strong With A Very Positive ISM Manufacturing Index

The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported yesterday morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive.

The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 to 65.1:

Since any reading above 50, however, indicates expansion, these were positive readings. The overall index is at levels equivalent to where it was during the strongest parts of the last decade’s expansion, and this month, like 3 of the last 4 months, the new orders component is equal to its strongest levels of the past 16 years.

Manufacturing has been very strong in the last half of this year, and as a short leading indicator, the ISM manufacturing index suggests that strength is going to continue in the first part of next year as well.

In general, both the short and long leading indicators are very positive for 2021. I am putting together detailed posts to that effect which will be up at Seeking Alpha, and to which I will link here.

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