November 2018 Residential Building Improved

Difference Between New Home Building Permits and Construction Completions (unadjusted)

 

Although the data is noisy - the trends vary depending on the periods selected - but the short term trends show slowing in this sector.

Unadjusted Year-over-Year Change New Homes - Permits (blue line) and Construction Completions (red line)

 

Other points to take away from the data:

  • Before we start thinking all is well, the residential home industry is less than half of the pre-2005 peak.

Seasonally Adjusted Residential Building Permits

 

  • Apartments accounted for 37.1 % of all building permits.

Unadjusted Ratio Apartment Permits (structures with 5 or more units) to Total Permits - a higher number means more Apartments

 

Caveats on the use of Building Permits Data

This is a non-monetary index. There is a significant revision. Per US Census:

In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 3 months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, 6 months for total starts, and 5 months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2.5 percent (±3.2%) above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised about three percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.

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