November 2018 Import And Export Price Year-Over-Year Inflation Significant Moderation

Year-over-year import prices and export prices declined significantly more than expected.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

The month-over-month price index for fuel imports decreased (and non-fuel imports also marginally declined) - and the price index for agricultural exports marginally increased.

Import Oil prices were down 11.0 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were up 1.8 %.

  • with import prices up 0.7 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 1.8 % year-over-year;
  • the markets were expecting (from Econoday):

There is only a marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

(Click on image to enlarge)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - the early 1990s, late 1990s, and mid-2000s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

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