November 2018 Headline Consumer Credit Growth Slowed

Year-over-Year Growth in $ Billions - Total Consumer Credit (blue line) vs Student Loans (red line)

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And one final look at total consumer credit and the effect of student loans. The graph below removes student loans from total consumer credit outstanding.

Total Consumer Credit Outstanding - Total Consumer Credit (blue line) vs Total Consumer Credit without Student Loans (red line)

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Econintersect spends time on this generally ignored data series because the USA is a consumer-driven economy. One New Normal phenomenon has been the consumer shift from a credit towards an electronic payment (current account debit) society - a quantum shift which changes the amount of consumption. Watching consumer credit provides confirmation that this New Normal shift continues.

Year-over-Year Growth of Consumer Credit - Total (blue line), Revolving Credit (red line), and Non-Revolving (green line which includes student loans)

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The Federal Reserve reports credit divided between revolving and non-revolving. The majority of revolving credit is from credit cards, while non-revolving credit includes automobile loans, student loans, and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, boats, trailers, or vacations.

Other Consumer Credit Data from Outside this Report:

The question remains on the rate of write-downs of consumer loans. The following graph addresses this question:

Net Charge-Offs on Consumer Credit

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Consumer Loan Delinquency

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The next graph addresses the question of loan losses by the banks which have returned to historical norms:

Bank Net Loan Losses - Percent of Total Loans

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This consumer credit release does not include mortgages. Here is what total household debt looks like. Please note that the mortgage data is not as current as the consumer credit data in this post.

Total Household Debt (includes mortgages blue line), mortgages (red line), and Consumer Credit talked about in this post (green line)

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And the consumer debt repayments (as a percent of income) remain at very low levels.

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