November 2018 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Declined

The economy's rate of growth declined based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - but economic growth remained above the historical trend rate of growth.

Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month

The single month index which is not used for economic forecasting, and unfortunately is what the CFNAI headlines. Economic predictions are based on the 3 month moving average. The single month index historically is very noisy and the 3 month moving average would be the way to view this index in any event.

There was downward revision to last month's data.

The bottom line is the economy is doing better than average in times of economic expansion..

The three month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined from +0.23 (originally reported as +0.31 last month) to +0.12

PLEASE NOTE:

  • This index IS NOT accurate in real time (see caveats below) - and it did miss the start of the 2007 recession.
  • Expectations from Econoday was 0.15 to 0.20 (consensus +0.19) - the actual was +0.22 for the single month index which is not used for economic forecasting.
  • This index is a rear view mirror of the economy.

 

A value of zero for the index would indicate that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and that a level below -0.7 would be indicating a recession was likely underway. Econintersect uses the three-month trend because the index is very noisy (volatile).

CFNAI Three Month Moving Average (blue line) with Historical Recession Line (red line)

As the 3-month index is the trend line, the overall trend for the last few years is upward - but the short-term trend is down As stated: this index only begins to show what is happening in the economy after many months of revision following the index's first release.

CFNAI Three Month Moving Average Showing Month-over-Month Change

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing, and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |

Disclaimer: No content is to be construed as investment advise and all content is provided for informational purposes only.The reader is solely responsible for determining whether any investment, ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.