Nothing Can Stop This Market - Except?

In the context of this discussion, Bayesian is learning the timing cycles of asset price movement by studying information found in option prices. Options contain many valuable pieces of information; however, the most valuable are the embedded sentiments and beliefs of price and time expectations of market participants. Thus, the Bayesian timing approach probabilistically quantifies turning points in time for security prices by using conditional information found in option prices. The end result is a powerful tool to help answer the question "When should I take a security position?" Combining this methodology with one that is able to track the sentiment affects upon price leads to potent 1-2 punch for traders.

To this end, for quite some time, I have been watching the work of Luke Miller. I met him when he became a member of my Trading Room well over a year ago. I have been quite impressed with his work, as I am sure you will be as well, along with his impressive credentials.

Luke has been an active trader for over twenty years and got into swing trading to finance his undergraduate and masters degrees in industrial & systems engineering and a PhD in financial engineering. In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise - investment timing decisions utilizing a novel technique he developed called Bayesian Learning Option Pricing (BLOP).

Luke's Bayesian timing research has been presented all over the world and most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016. Luke is presently a college professor and investment consultant to high net worth clients; using his Bayesian timing system to earn 30% per annum since 2007 by trading ETFs in indices, energy, and metals.

Luke will begin writing some articles with me about his Bayesian timing methodology, so I wanted to offer an introduction to his work this week. Be on the lookout for further articles explaining Luke's groundbreaking work on timing, which complements the sentiment analysis we provide.

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Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net ( more

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