For months now, President Trump has maintained that he will implement a large new round of trade tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the US this coming Sunday, December 15 – unless there is a breakthrough in the ongoing trade talks with China.

The new trade tariffs President Trump is threatening to include new duties on a wide range of Chinese products including toys, computer laptops, and smartphones, just to name a few.

Last week, however, while speaking at the latest NATO summit in London, Mr. Trump threw a curveball, hinting that he is in no hurry to finalize a new trade agreement with China and that such an agreement could wait until just before, or just after, the 2020 presidential election. But this was in no way a promise or firm commitment to hold off on the additional tariffs.

So, unless the president offers more details today, tomorrow or Saturday, we simply do not know what will happen on Sunday. This is, of course, very unsettling to the financial markets. Stocks sold off earlier this week on fears that a trade deal will not be struck by December 15.

Newsweek surveyed 29 analysts familiar with the issue in the last week, and 18 said they do not expect a meaningful trade agreement to be reached by this Sunday when the latest round of tariffs are set to go in place. Only 10 said they expect a “phase one” deal to be struck between the world’s two largest economies by the December 15 deadline.

It is worth noting that China did make one concession toward a phase one deal last Sunday when it announced that it was waiving retaliatory tariffs on imports of US pork and soybean products. Chinese companies immediately increased orders for US soybean products, according to sources familiar with US/China trade relations.

The bottom line is we simply do not know what is likely to happen over the coming weekend.  The US/China trade teams could come up with a round-one agreement by Sunday, or they may not. If no agreement is reached, President Trump could impose the additional tariffs to go into effect on Sunday, or he may elect to postpone them until later as many are advising.

If no agreement is reached and Trump imposes the new tariffs Sunday, I would expect US stocks to be lower, perhaps significantly lower, on Monday. The point is, we just don’t know. I only bring this to your attention because of the impact it could have on US and world markets next week, depending on how it plays out.

Late Note: Word out of Washington this morning is that US/China trade negotiators are making some progress toward stopping or delaying the next large round of tariffs slated to go into effect on Sunday – even if it’s a temporary agreement. We’ll see what happens.

61% of Likely American Voters Are Not in the Stock Market

Here’s another very interesting thing I read in the last week. The latest Financial Times/Peterson Foundation poll found that 61% of likely US voters admit they missed out on this year’s stock market rally to new record highs.

Specifically, they said this year’s record run in stocks – which has seen the S&P 500 Index rise over 25% – has had no impact on their personal finances. In other words, they’ve been on the sidelines this year.

There’s a good chance it also means that many have been on the sidelines since the financial crisis of 2008-early 2009. If so, that means they missed out on the quadrupling of the S&P 500 from 700 in early 2009 to over 3,100 today. That’s a crying shame because opportunities like this are few and far between.

According to the survey, most Americans aren’t aware of stock market movements at all, with just 40% of respondents correctly stating that the market has risen this year. Another 42% said the market was “about the same” as when the year started (ouch), and the final 18% said it had actually “lost value” this year (double ouch!).

I recognize that most of you reading this appreciate the value of professional management when it comes to your investments. For years, I have read that the best aspect of professional management is the likelihood that your manager will get you out of the market before, or soon after, bear markets begin.