New Residential Construction

Today, the Census Department released the New Residential Construction report for October.

• New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in October 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000. This is 17.3 percent (±12.8 percent) below the revised September rate of 738,000 and is 9.4 percent (±19.0 percent) below the October 2023 estimate of 673,000.
• Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.5 months at the current sales rate.

Note the margins of error in this report of 12 to 19 percent.

New Home For Sale by Stage of Construction

Stage of Construction Details

• Of the alleged 481,000 homes for sales 103,000 have not been started
• 113,000 are finished and the number is rising at the fastest rate since the Great Recession
• 378,000 homes are started or completed. This represents a builder commitment that’s very hard to stop.

October 7: Government Employment Rose by an Amazing 785,000 in September

BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts.

November 3: Excluding Government, Year-Over-Year Employment Is Negative 9 Straight Months

I did a deep dive into the latest jobs report this weekend. Here are some interesting numbers.

November 20: Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement

Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.

My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.

The Fed predicts an immaculate soft landing, I don’t.

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