New Home Sales Jump An Astonishing 28 Percent In August

New home sales data from commerce department, chart by Mish.

New home sales data from the commerce department, chart by Mish.

The Commerce Department's New Home Sales Report for August was a huge upside surprise.

New Home Sales

  • Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000.
  • This is 28.8 percent (±18.3 percent) above the revised July rate of 532,000, but is 0.1 percent (±16.5 percent) below the August 2021 estimate of 686,000.

Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2022 was $436,800. The average sales price was $521,800.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

New Homes for Sale Supply 2022-08

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 461,000. This represents a supply of 8.1 months at the current sales rate.

Supply is more than a bit misleading. It includes homes for sale that have not even been started.

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction 2022-08

Of the purported 461,000 homes for sale, only 49,000 are complete. 

106,000 thousand homes for sales are not even started. 306,000 are in some stage of construction other than complete. 

Astonishing Report 

The commerce department revised July lower, but the number was a shocking blowout.

The Econoday consensus range was 400,000 to 522,000. I highly doubt this number will survive revisions.

That said, the chart of sales is still in a major downtrend. Before looking at the numbers I noted bond yields. The 30-year bond yield is up 13 basis points as I type, to 3.83%. 

The 10-year yield is up 9 basis point to 3.98 percent, closing in 4.00 percent. 

These numbers will not help anyone looking for a Fed pivot.

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