New Home Sales data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Expectations vs Reality

• The Econoday consensus was for new home sales for September to be 685,000 at a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR). That was an expected jump of 9,000 (about 1.3 Percent).
• The Commerce Department reports new home sales at 759,000 SAAR. That’s a jump of 12.3 percent.

New Residential Sales September 2023 Details

• New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000,.This is 12.3 percent (±16.6 percent) above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 percent (±22.9 percent) above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000.
• Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was $418,800. The average sales price was $503,900.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.

New Home Sales Since 1963

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New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

Stage of Construction Details

• Of the allegedly 435,000 homes for sales, 105,000 have not even been started.
• Only 75,000 have been completed
• 255,000 are under construction.

These numbers make a mockery of 6.9 percent supply.

Month’s Supply

Based on a fictitious number of homes for sale, we can calculate fictitious supply in months at the current rate of fictional sales, plus or minus 16 percent or so.

Median New Home Sales Price

Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low

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On October 19, I noted Existing Home Sales Drop Another Two Percent to a 13-Year Low

Existing home sales are down 37.5 percent in less than two years.

Home sales were 6.34 million in January of 2022 at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate. They are now 3.96 million.

For more on existing home sales please see the above link.

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