Natural Gas Week Ahead - Monday, Dec. 3

Natural Gas market on the Nymex had a positive week closing 7.35% higher than the previous one at $4.62. Thursday’s storage report confirmed a withdrawal of 59 Bcf and this figure is close to the 5year average for a week in mid-November. The market went south after this but only for a couple of a percent. Demand also seems to look lighter for the coming week while there is going to be a short break of the colder weather we saw in northern Lower 48 last few weeks.

We are looking at a range-bound price and we continue to trade the 4hour, while we anticipate a reverse in sentiment on the daily chart to think selling again the longer period. Oversupply is always significant for this market and will look even more expressive if we don’t see larger withdrawals in underground stocks in the coming month, just before start trading the spring contracts. EIA released its annual report showing record high level of U.S. Natural Gas proved reserves, increased by 36.1% to 464.3 Tcf at year-end 2017.

Strong seasonality rallies could continue though, on colder weather and distribution disruptions, we will not go against the market nor any breakout, as volatility is typical for this time of season, in both plays, on a shorter timeframe. Trading volumes, MACD and RSI offering precision in our entry decisions. Dimitris Kontoulis.

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