Natural Gas Finally Bounces Back Some

The March natural gas contract was finally able to hold onto some gains today, settling up a bit over a percent on the day as afternoon weather model guidance turned back colder after recent volatility and balances began to improve. 

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natural gas commodity weather

It was actually the fall strip that was the biggest winner on the day, though, with the September contract leading the way higher. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The March/April spread was essentially flat on the day despite a decent rally at the front of the strip. 

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natural gas commodity weather

This came as LNG exports finally came back online today. 

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natural gas commodity weather

In our Morning Update, we warned that those could combine with colder weekend weather to strengthen cash today, which turned our sentiment "Slightly Bullish" as the March contract seemed to have a floor at $2.55 despite overnight GWDD losses. 

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

We also warned that 12z model guidance and Week 3 forecasts were more likely to trend bullish than yesterday. 

natural gas commodity weather

This verified well, with afternoon model guidance shooting back colder with Climate Prediction Center Week 2 forecasts cooling today. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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