NAHB Housing Market Index: "Lower Interest Rates Stabilize Builder Confidence"

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook.

The latest reading of 58, up 2 from last month's number, came in slightly above Investing.com forecast of 57.

Here is the opening of this morning's monthly update:

Buoyed by falling mortgage rates, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to 58 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“The gradual decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks helped to sustain builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “Low unemployment, solid job growth and favorable demographics should support housing demand in the coming months.” [link]

Here is the historical series, which dates from 1985.

Housing Market Index

 

The HMI correlates fairly closely with broad measures of consumer confidence. Here is a pair of overlays with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (through the previous month) and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Note Michigan Sentiment's figure has not yet been released for January.

HMI and Consumer Sentiment

 

 

HMI and Consumer Confidence

 

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