NAHB Housing Market Index: "Lower Interest Rates, Rising Consumer Confidence..."

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook.

The latest reading of 62 is up 4 from last month's number.

Here is the opening of this morning's monthly update:

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to 62 in February, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today in Las Vegas during the 75th annual International Builders’ Show.

“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.” [link]

Here is the historical series, which dates from 1985.

Housing Market Index

 

The HMI correlates fairly closely with broad measures of consumer confidence. Here is a pair of overlays with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (through the previous month) and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.

HMI and Consumer Sentiment

 

 

HMI and Consumer Confidence

 

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