Morning Call For Monday, Nov. 27


Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.09% at a new record nearest-futures high on signs of sustainability in the U.S. economic recovery as consumers continue to spend after Adobe Systems reported that Black Friday online spending was a record $5.03 billion, up +16.9% y/y. Adobe also estimates that today's Cyber Monday shopping day will be the biggest online shopping day in history, with $6.6 billion in predicted sales, up +16.5% y/y. European stocks are up +0.24% as political risks in Germany eased on signs that the SPD party will join Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic party in a "Grand Coalition." Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong -0.60%, China -0.94%, Taiwan -0.95%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore -0.17%, South Korea -1.76%, India +0.13%. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low as concern over the government's attempt to tighten liquidity led to long liquidation in Chinese large-cap stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.12% at a 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03% at a 2-month high on optimism Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic party can form a coalition with the German SPD party. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 unch) are down -3 ticks.

Japan Oct PPI services prices rose +0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% y/y.

China Oct industrial profits rose +25.1% y/y and Jan-Oct industrial profits are up +23.3% y/y.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct new home sales (expected -6.3% to 625,000, Sep +18.9% to 667,000), (2) Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected -3.6 to 24.0, Oct +6.3 to 27.6), (3) Treasury auctions $26 billion of 2-year T-notes and $34 billion of 5-year T-notes, (4) New York Fed President Dudley (voter) speaks in a moderated discussion at the University of California, Berkeley, on ‘The U.S. Economy: 10 Years after the Crisis,’ (5) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (6) USDA crop conditions and progress report.

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