OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.51%) this morning are up +0.50% led by gains in Apple and McDonald's in pre-market trading, and European stocks are up +0.23% after Eurozone Jan economic confidence rose to the highest in 6 months. Also, a rally in Greek bank stocks is boosting the overall market after the head of the ECB's Supervisory Board, Daniele Nouy, said that Greek lenders are "pretty strong" and can survive the current market turbulence. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.06%, Hong Kong -1.07%, China -1.23%, Taiwan -0.88%, Australia +0.30%, Singapore unch, South Korea-0.69%, India +0.41%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-week low amid speculation that increased regulatory scrutiny of margin loans will reduce leveraged buying of Chinese stocks after the Xinhua News Agency reported that China's Securities Regulatory Commission will start a new round of checks into the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.11%) is down -0.04%. Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.65%) is up +0.43%. Feb gold (GCG15 -1.29%) is down -1.40% at a 1-1/2 week low. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.86%) is down -2.00%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.45%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.18%) are down -6 ticks.

Eurozone Jan economic confidence rose +0.6 to 101.2, less than expectations of +0.9 to 101.6 but still the highest in 6 months. The Jan business climate indicator rose +0.01 from an upward revised 0.15 in Dec to 0.16, higher than expectations of +0.12.

Eurozone Dec M3 money supply rose +3.6% y/y, more than expectations of +3.5% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 2 years. The Dec 3-month avg rose +3.1%, right on expectations.

The German Jan unemployment change fell -9,000, slightly less than expectations of -10,000, The Jan unemployment rate fell -0,a from an upward revised 6.6% in Dec to 6.5%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.

UK Jan CBI reported sales fell -22 to 39, a smaller decline than expectations of -29 to 32.

UK Jan nationwide house prices rose +0.3% m/m and +6.8% y/y, close to expectations of +0.35 m/m and +6.6% y/y.

Japan Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month as they fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, Dec retail sales rose +0.2% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to fall by -7,000 to 300,000, adding to last week’s decline of -10,000 to 307,000. Today’s continuing claims report is expected to fall by -38,000 to 2.405 million, more than reversing last week’s +15,000 rise to 2.443 million. Today’s Dec pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m and +10.9% y/y following the Nov report of +0.8% m/m and +1.7% y/y. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes and $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $105 billion T-note package. There are no equity conferences today.

There are 51 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Google (consensus $7.19), Amazon.com (0.19), Visa (2.49), Abbot (0.69), PulteGroup (0.40), Baxter (1.31), Time Warner (2.09), Dow Chemical (0.70), Ford (0.22), Nasdaq (0.74).

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

McDonald's (MCD -0.88%) rose more than 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that CEO Don Thompson will retire and Steve Easterbrook will replace him.

IDEX Corp. (IEX -0.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 77 cents, weaker than consensus of 87 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.65-$3.75, below consensus of $3.82.

Murphy Oil (MUR -7.23%) reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents, above consensus of 30 cents

Kirby (KEX -3.97%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.19, higher than consensus of $1.15.

Helmerich & Payne (HP -6.49%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $55.

Tetra Tech (TTEK -2.34%) reported Q1 EPS of 41 cents, more than consensus of 35 cents.

Cabot (CBT -2.01%) reported Q1 EPS of 69 cents, better than consensus of 65 cents.

Ameriprise (AMP -2.03%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $2.30, higher than consensus of $2.22.

CACI (CACI +0.05%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.01, below consensus of $1.06.

Swift Transport (SWFT -1.77%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, more than consensus of 48 cents.

Hologic (HOLX unch) reported Q1 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 36 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS outlook to $1.54-$1.57 from $1.50-$1.54, higher than consensus of $1.54.

Lam Research (LRCX -0.54%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.19, higher than consensus $1.13.

Citrix (CTXS -1.53%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.10, stronger than consensus of $1.03.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.60%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 92 cents, more than consensus of 81 cents.

Qualcomm (QCOM -1.09%) fell over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.34, better than consensus of $1.25, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $4.75-$5.05 from $5.05-$5.35, below consensus of $5.21.

Facebook (FB +0.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 54 cents, higher than consensus of 48 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.51%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -1.35%, Dow Jones -1.13%, Nasdaq -0.60%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern that Greece’s new government may default on its international debts if it abandons agreements made by the prior Greek administration, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil sold off. Bullish factors included (1) early strength in technology stocks on better-than-expected earnings results from Apple, and (2) the post-FOMC meeting statement where the Fed pledged to remain “patient” on raising interest rates.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.18%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +26.00, FVH5 +14.75. Bullish factors included (1) the post-FOMC meeting statement where the Fed maintained its pledge to be “patient” on raising interest rates, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks declined.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) this morning is up +0.096 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0027 (+0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.53 (+0.45%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.445 (+0.47%), EUR/USD -0.00932 (-0.82%), USD/JPY -0.3458 (-0.29%). Bullish factors included (1) Greek sovereign debt concerns that weighed on EUR/USD, and (2) the Fed’s post-FOMC statement that said the economy is “expanding at a solid pace,” which bolstered speculation the Fed will raise interest rates later this year.

Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.11%) this morning is down -2 cents (-0.04%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.65%) is up +0.0059 (+0.43%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed: CLH5 -1.78 (-3.85%), RBH5 -0.0006 (-0.04%). Bearish factors that sent Mar crude down to a 5-3/4 year low included (1) the +8.87 million bbl surge in weekly EIA crude inventories to 406.7 million bbl, twice as much as expectations of +4.0 million bbl and the highest since 1931, (2) the +2.09 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to an 11-1/2 month high of 38.9 million bbl, and (3) the +0.3% w/w increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jan 23 to 9.213 million bpd, the highest in over 40 years. Gasoline prices recovered from their worst levels after weekly EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell -2.6 million bbl versus expectations for a +500,000 bbl increase.

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